Napoli
vs
Lazio
Garuda Lions Prediction: Napoli
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Napoli is the favourite, not a value bet.
Napoli vs Lazio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Napoli vs Lazio
| Probability | Napoli | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.3% | 23.8% | 31.8% |
| Market | 48.5% | 25.5% | 26.0% |
| Final | 47.4% | 25.1% | 27.5% |
| Edge | -1.0% | -0.4% | +1.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +12.0% per unit staked (our 47.4% × 2.36 − 1).
Napoli vs Lazio match preview
Napoli faces Lazio in an intriguing Serie A matchup, with the probabilities indicating a 47% chance of a Napoli victory, while Lazio holds a 27% chance and a draw stands at 25%. According to our model, the most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Napoli, with an expected goals tally of 2.11 for Napoli and 1.79 for Lazio. Both teams are projected to score, with a 75% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Napoli has recorded two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Lazio is on an impressive six-match winning streak. The head-to-head record shows Napoli with one win, two draws, and three losses against Lazio in their last six encounters. This matchup presents a compelling clash between a struggling Napoli and a formidable Lazio side.
Napoli and Lazio team news
Napoli news
- A. Buongiorno — jumpers knee
Lazio news
- Patric — sprained ankle
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Napoli and Lazio expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.86
Napoli and Lazio attack and defence ratings
Napoli
Lazio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Napoli vs Lazio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 47.4% | 2.11 | -1.0% | 2.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 47.4% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Lazio | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.7% |
| No | 25.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win | 14.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.7% | |
| Loss | 72.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Napoli vs Lazio stats
Napoli and Lazio recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Napoli and Lazio season so far
Napoli record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Lazio record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Napoli vs Lazio head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Napoli | Lazio | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Lazio | Napoli | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2025-02-15 | Lazio | Napoli | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2024-12-08 | Napoli | Lazio | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-01-28 | Lazio | Napoli | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2023-09-02 | Napoli | Lazio | Serie A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Napoli vs Lazio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.7%, draw 26.6%, away 31.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.33 | 3.72 | 3.15 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.33 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.26 | 3.62 | 3.06 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.66 | 3.01 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 3.19 | 2.72 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .