Genoa
vs
AC Milan
Garuda Lions Prediction: AC Milan
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AC Milan is the favourite, not a value bet.
Genoa vs AC Milan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Genoa vs AC Milan
| Probability | Genoa | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.5% | 28.3% | 41.2% |
| Market | 20.6% | 26.0% | 53.3% |
| Final | 23.1% | 26.6% | 50.3% |
| Edge | +2.5% | +0.6% | -3.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 50.3% × 1.85 − 1).
Genoa vs AC Milan match preview
Genoa faces AC Milan in their upcoming Serie A match, with Genoa holding a 23% probability of winning, while AC Milan is favored at 50%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 27%. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 9% probability. Expected goals are calculated at 1.40 for Genoa and 1.65 for AC Milan, indicating a competitive encounter.
In terms of recent form, Genoa has recorded three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while AC Milan has achieved four wins and two losses. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters shows Genoa has not secured a win, with AC Milan winning three times and three matches ending in draws. The model suggests a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score.
Genoa and AC Milan team news
Genoa news
- L. Venturino — jumpers knee
AC Milan news
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Genoa and AC Milan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.00
Genoa and AC Milan attack and defence ratings
Genoa
AC Milan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Genoa vs AC Milan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 50.3% | 1.99 | -3.0% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 23.1% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| AC Milan | 50.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.7% | |
| Loss | 66.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Genoa vs AC Milan stats
Genoa and AC Milan recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Genoa and AC Milan season so far
Genoa record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AC Milan record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Genoa vs AC Milan head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Genoa | AC Milan | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-08 | AC Milan | Genoa | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Genoa | AC Milan | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-15 | AC Milan | Genoa | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-05 | AC Milan | Genoa | Serie A | 3-3 |
| 2023-10-07 | Genoa | AC Milan | Serie A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Genoa vs AC Milan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.9%, draw 26.6%, away 52.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.84 | 3.72 | 1.85 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.50 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.84 |
| Marathonbet | 4.70 | 3.62 | 1.80 |
| Pinnacle | 4.78 | 3.55 | 1.85 |
| SBO | 3.90 | 3.15 | 1.81 |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .