Cagliari
vs
Frosinone
Garuda Lions Prediction: Frosinone
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.85.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 57%.
Cagliari vs Frosinone overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cagliari vs Frosinone
| Probability | Cagliari | Draw | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.0% | 20.1% | 55.0% |
| Market | 35.7% | 25.6% | 38.8% |
| Final | 33.0% | 24.2% | 42.8% |
| Edge | -2.7% | -1.4% | +4.1% |
Why Frosinone
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.85.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Frosinone below our published probability: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.0% per unit staked (our 42.8% × 2.50 − 1).
Cagliari vs Frosinone match preview
Cagliari faces Frosinone in an intriguing Serie A clash, with the probabilities indicating a competitive match. Cagliari holds a 33% chance of winning, while Frosinone is slightly favored at 43%. The expected goals for Cagliari stand at 1.87, compared to Frosinone's 2.71, suggesting a potential edge for the visitors. Recent form shows Cagliari struggling with four consecutive losses, while Frosinone has been more consistent, winning four of their last six matches.
The most likely scoreline projected by our model is 1-2, occurring at a 7% probability. Additionally, there is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams scoring at 80%. In their last three encounters, Cagliari has won twice, while Frosinone has secured one victory, adding an interesting dynamic to this matchup.
Cagliari and Frosinone team news
Cagliari news
- Riyad Idrissi — jumpers knee
Frosinone news
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cagliari and Frosinone expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.57
Cagliari and Frosinone attack and defence ratings
Cagliari
Frosinone
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cagliari vs Frosinone markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 42.8% | 2.34 | +4.1% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 33.0% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Frosinone | 42.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.9% |
| No | 20.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win | 37.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.1% |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | |
| 1-3 | 6.4% |
Cagliari vs Frosinone stats
Cagliari and Frosinone recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cagliari and Frosinone season so far
Cagliari record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Frosinone record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Cagliari vs Frosinone head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | Cagliari | Frosinone | Coppa Italia | 4-1 |
| 2024-01-21 | Frosinone | Cagliari | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2023-10-29 | Cagliari | Frosinone | Serie A | 4-3 |
| 2023-04-15 | Cagliari | Frosinone | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2022-11-27 | Frosinone | Cagliari | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2019-04-20 | Cagliari | Frosinone | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2018-12-02 | Frosinone | Cagliari | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cagliari vs Frosinone odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.0%, draw 26.1%, away 38.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.83 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.65 | 2.48 |
| Marathonbet | 2.74 | 3.72 | 2.43 |
| Pinnacle | 2.76 | 3.78 | 2.48 |
| SBO | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .