Venezia
vs
Udinese
Garuda Lions Prediction: Venezia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.65.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 54%.
Venezia vs Udinese overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Venezia vs Udinese
| Probability | Venezia | Draw | Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 22.2% | 25.0% |
| Market | 44.1% | 26.2% | 29.7% |
| Final | 46.3% | 25.2% | 28.5% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -1.0% | -1.2% |
Why Venezia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.65.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Venezia below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.7% per unit staked (our 46.3% × 2.37 − 1).
Venezia vs Udinese match preview
Venezia faces Udinese in an intriguing Serie A matchup, with our model giving Venezia a 46% chance of victory compared to Udinese's 29% and a 25% probability of a draw. The expected goals for Venezia stand at 2.38, while Udinese is projected at 1.65. Recent form shows Venezia struggling with three consecutive losses followed by a win, while Udinese has not secured a win in their last six matches, with five losses and one draw.
Historically, Venezia has managed to win once in their last five encounters against Udinese, who have dominated with four victories. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 2-1 in favor of Venezia, with a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams scoring at 75%. The confidence grade for this prediction is rated as A.
Venezia and Udinese team news
Venezia news
- A. Adorante — hernia
- B. Franjic — shoulder injury
- M. Sverko — hip injury
- T. Correia — thigh injury
Udinese news
- A. Zanoli — muscle injury
- D. Alaba — calf injury
- I. Gueye — ankle injury
- O. Solet — muscle injury
- V. Bayo — thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Venezia and Udinese expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.03
Venezia and Udinese attack and defence ratings
Venezia
Udinese
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Venezia vs Udinese markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 46.3% | 2.16 | +2.2% | 2.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.5% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 46.3% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Udinese | 28.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.8% |
| No | 25.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Venezia win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 47.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Venezia vs Udinese stats
Venezia and Udinese recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Venezia and Udinese season so far
Venezia record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Udinese record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Venezia vs Udinese head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Udinese | Venezia | Coppa Italia | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-01 | Udinese | Venezia | Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2024-10-30 | Venezia | Udinese | Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2022-04-10 | Venezia | Udinese | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2021-08-27 | Udinese | Venezia | Serie A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Venezia vs Udinese odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 28.3%, away 30.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.45 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.34 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.33 | 3.44 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.43 | 3.23 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 3.29 | 2.94 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .