Torino
vs
Lecce
Garuda Lions Prediction: Torino
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.48.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Torino is the favourite, not a value bet.
Torino vs Lecce overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Torino vs Lecce
| Probability | Torino | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.9% | 26.0% | 29.1% |
| Market | 52.1% | 26.3% | 21.6% |
| Final | 50.3% | 26.2% | 23.4% |
| Edge | -1.8% | -0.1% | +1.9% |
Why Torino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (our 50.3% × 1.87 − 1).
Torino vs Lecce match preview
Torino enters this match with a 49% probability of winning, while Lecce has a 25% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Torino, which has a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 69% probability for each side finding the net, and the overall expectation for goals in the match stands at 69% for over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Torino has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Lecce has struggled, winning only two of their last six. Historically, in their last six encounters, Torino has secured three victories, with Lecce winning two and one match ending in a draw. This context suggests a competitive matchup, with Torino slightly favored.
Torino and Lecce team news
Torino news
- P. Pellegri — jumpers knee
Lecce news
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Torino and Lecce expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
Torino and Lecce attack and defence ratings
Torino
Lecce
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Torino vs Lecce markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torino | 50.3% | 1.99 | -1.8% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torino | 50.3% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Lecce | 23.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.2% |
| No | 31.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Torino win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 54.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Torino vs Lecce stats
Torino and Lecce recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Torino and Lecce season so far
Torino record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lecce record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Torino vs Lecce head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Torino | Lecce | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Lecce | Torino | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Lecce | Torino | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-15 | Torino | Lecce | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-16 | Torino | Lecce | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-28 | Lecce | Torino | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2023-03-12 | Lecce | Torino | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2022-09-05 | Torino | Lecce | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2020-10-28 | Torino | Lecce | Coppa Italia | 3-1 |
| 2020-02-02 | Lecce | Torino | Serie A | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Torino vs Lecce odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.2%, draw 26.5%, away 21.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.84 | 4.53 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.55 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.83 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.84 | 3.65 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.74 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.73 | 4.62 |
| SBO | 1.79 | 3.26 | 3.84 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .