Lecce
vs
Genoa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Genoa
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Genoa is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lecce vs Genoa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lecce vs Genoa
| Probability | Lecce | Draw | Genoa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.7% | 28.6% | 34.7% |
| Market | 34.2% | 30.5% | 35.2% |
| Final | 34.8% | 30.1% | 35.1% |
| Edge | +0.6% | -0.5% | -0.1% |
Why Genoa
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (our 35.1% × 2.75 − 1).
Lecce vs Genoa match preview
Lecce and Genoa face off in a tightly contested Serie A match, with both teams holding a 35% probability of victory according to our model. The expected goals suggest a close encounter, with Lecce projected to score 1.54 and Genoa 1.49. Recent form shows Lecce struggling with three losses in their last six matches, while Genoa has shown more resilience, with three wins and a draw in the same period.
Historically, the head-to-head record is balanced, with each team claiming two wins and two draws in their last six meetings. The most likely scoreline, based on our model, is 1-2 in favor of Genoa, with a 63% chance that both teams will find the net. Additionally, there is a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lecce and Genoa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Lecce and Genoa attack and defence ratings
Lecce
Genoa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lecce vs Genoa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 35.1% | 2.85 | -0.1% | 2.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lecce | 34.8% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Genoa | 35.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.0% |
| No | 37.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Genoa win | 17.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 65.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Lecce vs Genoa stats
Lecce and Genoa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lecce and Genoa season so far
Lecce record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Genoa record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lecce vs Genoa head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Lecce | Genoa | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Genoa | Lecce | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-14 | Genoa | Lecce | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-05 | Lecce | Genoa | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-01-28 | Genoa | Lecce | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-22 | Lecce | Genoa | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lecce vs Genoa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 30.5%, away 35.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.99 | 3.22 | 2.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.15 | 2.72 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.15 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.90 | 3.12 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.85 | 3.06 | 2.69 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.50 |