Juventus
vs
Napoli
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventus
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.31.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Juventus is the favourite, not a value bet.
Juventus vs Napoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juventus vs Napoli
| Probability | Juventus | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.3% | 23.9% | 20.8% |
| Market | 50.2% | 26.4% | 23.4% |
| Final | 51.5% | 25.8% | 22.7% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
Why Juventus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.1% per unit staked (our 51.5% × 1.94 − 1).
Juventus vs Napoli match preview
Juventus is set to face Napoli in a Serie A clash, with the match kicking off on November 1, 2026. According to our model, Juventus holds a 58% probability of winning, while Napoli has a 19% chance, and a draw stands at 23%. The expected goals for Juventus are 2.29 compared to Napoli's 1.30, suggesting a potential scoreline of 2-1, which has a 9% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Juventus has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Napoli has achieved two wins, three losses, and one draw in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters shows Juventus with two wins, one draw, and Napoli with three victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Juventus and Napoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Juventus and Napoli attack and defence ratings
Juventus
Napoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Juventus vs Napoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 51.5% | 1.94 | +1.3% | 1.94 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 51.5% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Napoli | 22.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% |
| No | 33.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.2% |
Juventus vs Napoli stats
Juventus and Napoli recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juventus and Napoli season so far
Juventus record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Napoli record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Juventus vs Napoli head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Juventus | Napoli | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Napoli | Juventus | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-25 | Napoli | Juventus | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-21 | Juventus | Napoli | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-03 | Napoli | Juventus | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2023-12-08 | Juventus | Napoli | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Juventus vs Napoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.2%, draw 26.4%, away 23.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.70 | 4.32 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.60 | 4.05 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.63 | 4.32 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.00 |