AC Milan
vs
Inter
Garuda Lions Prediction: Inter
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.91.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Inter is the favourite, not a value bet.
AC Milan vs Inter overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AC Milan vs Inter
| Probability | AC Milan | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.3% | 21.5% | 49.2% |
| Market | 31.9% | 26.3% | 41.8% |
| Final | 31.2% | 25.1% | 43.7% |
| Edge | -0.6% | -1.2% | +1.8% |
Why Inter
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.91.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.8% per unit staked (our 43.7% × 2.40 − 1).
AC Milan vs Inter match preview
In the upcoming Serie A match, AC Milan faces Inter with a probability model indicating a 28% chance of a home win for Milan, while Inter is favored at 51%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a frequency of 7%. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with an 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% probability that both teams will score.
Recent form shows AC Milan with mixed results, recording two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Inter has demonstrated stronger performance, winning four of their last six games. The expected goals for AC Milan stand at 1.86, while Inter is projected at 2.51, reflecting their offensive capabilities leading into this encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AC Milan and Inter expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.37
AC Milan and Inter attack and defence ratings
AC Milan
Inter
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
AC Milan vs Inter markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 43.7% | 2.29 | +1.8% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 31.2% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Inter | 43.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.1% |
| No | 20.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win | 31.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.3% |
| 1-1 | 7.1% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
AC Milan vs Inter stats
AC Milan and Inter recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AC Milan and Inter season so far
AC Milan record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter record
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
AC Milan vs Inter head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | AC Milan | Inter | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Inter | AC Milan | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-02 | AC Milan | Inter | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Inter | AC Milan | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-22 | AC Milan | Inter | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2023-09-16 | Inter | AC Milan | Serie A | 5-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AC Milan vs Inter odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.9%, draw 26.3%, away 41.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.11 | 3.70 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.70 | 2.27 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.65 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 3.02 | 3.60 | 2.29 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.61 | 2.19 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .