Como
vs
Venezia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Como
3 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.20 vs 1.74.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Como is the favourite, not a value bet.
Como vs Venezia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Como vs Venezia
| Probability | Como | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.7% | 16.8% | 17.5% |
| Market | 73.3% | 16.1% | 10.6% |
| Final | 71.4% | 16.3% | 12.3% |
| Edge | -1.9% | +0.2% | +1.7% |
Why Como
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.20 vs 1.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.1% per unit staked (our 71.4% × 1.33 − 1).
Como vs Venezia match preview
Como enters this match against Venezia with strong recent form, having won three of their last five matches, while Venezia has struggled, losing four of their last five. The probabilities suggest a significant advantage for Como, with a 66% chance of winning, compared to Venezia's 17%. The expected goals indicate a dominant performance from Como, with 3.21 expected goals against Venezia's 1.73.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-1 in favor of Como, with an 87% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. Additionally, there is an 80% chance that both teams will score. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Como has not secured a win, with two draws against Venezia.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Como and Venezia expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.93
Como and Venezia attack and defence ratings
Como
Venezia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Como vs Venezia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 71.4% | 1.40 | -1.9% | 1.33 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.7% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Como win | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 71.4% |
| Draw | 16.3% | |
| Venezia | 12.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 13.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.8% |
| No | 20.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win | 48.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 6.8% |
| 2-1 | 6.4% | |
| 3-2 | 5.9% |
Como vs Venezia stats
Como and Venezia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Como and Venezia season so far
Como record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Venezia record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Como vs Venezia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Como | Venezia | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-08 | Venezia | Como | Serie A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Como vs Venezia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.3%, draw 16.1%, away 10.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 6.37 | 10.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.25 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.31 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.33 | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 6.05 | 9.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.25 | 6.36 | 9.58 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 5.50 | 9.00 |