Venezia
vs
Inter
Garuda Lions Prediction: Inter
1 – 3 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.08 vs 1.95.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Inter is the favourite, not a value bet.
Venezia vs Inter overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Venezia vs Inter
| Probability | Venezia | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.0% | 17.9% | 60.1% |
| Market | 11.6% | 16.3% | 72.1% |
| Final | 14.2% | 16.7% | 69.1% |
| Edge | +2.6% | +0.4% | -3.0% |
Why Inter
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.08 vs 1.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.7% per unit staked (our 69.1% × 1.35 − 1).
Venezia vs Inter match preview
Venezia faces a challenging matchup against Inter, with the model indicating a significant advantage for the visitors. Venezia has struggled recently, recording one win in their last six matches, while Inter has shown stronger form with four wins in their last six. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Inter, with 3.09 expected goals compared to Venezia's 1.95.
The model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-3, with an 88% probability of over 2.5 goals and an 83% chance that both teams will score. Historically, Inter has been dominant in their recent encounters, winning all three of the last head-to-head matches against Venezia. This context adds to Inter's confidence heading into the fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Venezia and Inter expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.03
Venezia and Inter attack and defence ratings
Venezia
Inter
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Venezia vs Inter markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 69.1% | 1.45 | -3.0% | 1.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.8% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.8% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 14.2% |
| Draw | 16.7% | |
| Inter | 69.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82.6% |
| No | 17.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 30.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win | 42.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 39.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 6.2% |
| 2-3 | 6.1% | |
| 1-2 | 6.1% |
Venezia vs Inter stats
Venezia and Inter recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Venezia and Inter season so far
Venezia record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Inter record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Venezia vs Inter head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | Inter | Venezia | Coppa Italia | 5-1 |
| 2025-01-12 | Venezia | Inter | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Inter | Venezia | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Venezia vs Inter odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 11.6%, draw 16.5%, away 71.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 8.55 | 6.28 | 1.35 |
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| BetVictor | 8.00 | 5.75 | 1.29 |
| Betano | 8.25 | 5.50 | 1.34 |
| Dafabet | 8.40 | 6.40 | 1.30 |
| Marathonbet | 8.20 | 6.00 | 1.32 |
| Pinnacle | 7.76 | 5.92 | 1.32 |
| SBO | 6.38 | 5.13 | 1.29 |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 5.50 | 1.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .