Genoa
vs
Venezia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Genoa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Genoa is the favourite, not a value bet.
Genoa vs Venezia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Genoa vs Venezia
| Probability | Genoa | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.5% | 26.4% | 32.1% |
| Market | 44.6% | 28.6% | 26.9% |
| Final | 43.8% | 28.0% | 28.2% |
| Edge | -0.8% | -0.5% | +1.3% |
Why Genoa
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.6% per unit staked (our 43.8% × 2.20 − 1).
Genoa vs Venezia match preview
Genoa faces Venezia in their upcoming Serie A match, with Genoa holding a 45% probability of winning compared to Venezia's 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Genoa, with an expected goals tally of 1.82 for Genoa and 1.59 for Venezia. Both teams are expected to be involved in a high-scoring encounter, as indicated by a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% probability that both teams will score.
Genoa's recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins, a draw, and three losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Venezia has struggled significantly, losing five consecutive matches before securing a win. The head-to-head record in their last two encounters is balanced, with each team having one victory. Overall, Genoa appears to have the upper hand heading into this fixture.
Genoa and Venezia team news
Genoa news
- D. Sow — thigh injury
- E. Havel — ankle injury
- F. Meichtry — muscle injury
- L. Colombo — ankle injury
- L. Venturino — knee injury
Venezia news
- A. Adorante — hernia
- A. Bella-Kotchap — thigh injury
- B. Franjic — shoulder injury
- G. Busio — thigh injury
- M. Sverko — hip injury
- T. Correia — thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Genoa and Venezia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Genoa and Venezia attack and defence ratings
Genoa
Venezia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Genoa vs Venezia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 43.8% | 2.28 | -0.8% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 43.8% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Venezia | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% |
| No | 31.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Genoa win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 58.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
Genoa vs Venezia stats
Genoa and Venezia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Genoa and Venezia season so far
Genoa record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Venezia record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Genoa vs Venezia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-17 | Genoa | Venezia | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-21 | Venezia | Genoa | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Genoa vs Venezia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.6%, draw 28.5%, away 26.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.34 | 3.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.23 | 3.75 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 3.10 | 3.09 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .