Napoli
vs
Roma
Garuda Lions Prediction: Roma
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Napoli vs Roma overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Napoli vs Roma
| Probability | Napoli | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.7% | 23.2% | 41.1% |
| Market | 32.4% | 27.3% | 40.2% |
| Final | 33.3% | 26.3% | 40.4% |
| Edge | +3.3% | -4.1% | +0.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Napoli vs Roma match preview
Napoli faces Roma in a Serie A clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Napoli has recorded two losses in their last three matches, while Roma has been more consistent with two wins and a draw in their last three outings. According to our model, Napoli has a 33% chance of winning, while Roma stands at 40%. The expected goals for Napoli are 1.97, compared to Roma's 2.11, suggesting a competitive match.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Roma, with a probability of 7%. Both teams are expected to score, with our model indicating a 77% likelihood for this outcome. Additionally, there is a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals, also at 77%, indicating an engaging and high-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Napoli and Roma expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.08
Napoli and Roma attack and defence ratings
Napoli
Roma
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Napoli vs Roma markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 40.4% | 2.47 | +0.8% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 33.3% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Roma | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.0% |
| No | 23.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 58.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.4% |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Napoli vs Roma stats
Napoli and Roma recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Napoli and Roma season so far
Napoli record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Roma record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Napoli vs Roma head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Napoli | Roma | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Roma | Napoli | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-02 | Roma | Napoli | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-24 | Napoli | Roma | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Napoli | Roma | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-23 | Roma | Napoli | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Napoli vs Roma odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.2%, draw 27.9%, away 39.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.90 | 3.51 | 2.38 |
| SBO | 2.68 | 3.12 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .