Roma
vs
Cagliari
Garuda Lions Prediction: Roma
3 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.03 vs 1.26.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Roma is the favourite, not a value bet.
Roma vs Cagliari overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roma vs Cagliari
| Probability | Roma | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.9% | 16.4% | 11.7% |
| Market | 70.0% | 19.4% | 10.6% |
| Final | 70.5% | 18.7% | 10.8% |
| Edge | +0.5% | -0.8% | +0.3% |
Why Roma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.03 vs 1.26.
Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.3% per unit staked (our 70.5% × 1.40 − 1).
Roma vs Cagliari match preview
Roma enters the match against Cagliari with a strong probability of winning at 70%. Their recent form shows a mix of results, including two wins in their last three matches. In contrast, Cagliari has fluctuated in performance, with three wins and two losses in their recent outings. The expected goals statistics suggest Roma will dominate offensively, with an expected 3.03 goals compared to Cagliari's 1.26.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 3-1 in favor of Roma, with an 8% chance of occurring. Additionally, there is an 80% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and a 69% chance that both teams will find the net. Historically, Roma has performed well against Cagliari, winning four of their last six encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roma and Cagliari expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.28
Roma and Cagliari attack and defence ratings
Roma
Cagliari
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Roma vs Cagliari markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 70.5% | 1.42 | +0.5% | 1.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 70.5% |
| Draw | 18.7% | |
| Cagliari | 10.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% |
| No | 30.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 53.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 28.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | |
| 3-0 | 6.4% |
Roma vs Cagliari stats
Roma and Cagliari recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Roma and Cagliari season so far
Roma record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Cagliari record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Roma vs Cagliari head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Roma | Cagliari | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Cagliari | Roma | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Roma | Cagliari | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Cagliari | Roma | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-05 | Roma | Cagliari | Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2023-10-08 | Cagliari | Roma | Serie A | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Roma vs Cagliari odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.7%, draw 19.8%, away 10.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 5.20 | 9.35 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.75 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.80 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.37 | 5.20 | 8.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34 | 4.80 | 9.84 |
| SBO | 1.32 | 4.39 | 7.43 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.60 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .