Parma Calcio 1913
vs
Udinese
Garuda Lions Prediction: Udinese
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Udinese is the favourite, not a value bet.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese
| Probability | Parma Calcio 1913 | Draw | Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.5% | 28.0% | 38.5% |
| Market | 31.9% | 29.2% | 38.9% |
| Final | 32.3% | 28.9% | 38.8% |
| Edge | +0.4% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (our 38.8% × 2.50 − 1).
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese match preview
Parma Calcio 1913 faces Udinese in what promises to be a competitive Serie A encounter. According to our model, the probabilities suggest a 32% chance of a Parma victory, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 39% chance for Udinese to win. The expected goals for Parma is 1.51, while Udinese is slightly ahead at 1.63. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
Recent form indicates struggles for both teams, with Parma recording two losses and a draw in their last six matches, while Udinese has lost five consecutive games before securing a win. Historically, in their last four encounters, Udinese has won three times, and Parma has only managed one victory. Our model indicates a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Udinese expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Parma Calcio 1913 and Udinese attack and defence ratings
Parma Calcio 1913
Udinese
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Udinese | 38.8% | 2.58 | -0.1% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 32.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Udinese | 38.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% |
| No | 35.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Udinese win | 20.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 61.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese stats
Parma Calcio 1913 and Udinese recent form
| Parma Calcio 1913 |
LLWLDL |
| Udinese |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Udinese season so far
Parma Calcio 1913 record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Udinese record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Udinese | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Udinese | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Udinese | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-16 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Udinese | Serie A | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.8%, draw 29.3%, away 38.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.13 | 3.40 | 2.49 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.47 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 3.04 | 3.30 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.96 | 3.21 | 2.50 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 2.99 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .