Atalanta
vs
Parma Calcio 1913
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atalanta
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.21.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atalanta is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913
| Probability | Atalanta | Draw | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.3% | 23.0% | 17.7% |
| Market | 67.1% | 20.0% | 12.9% |
| Final | 65.1% | 20.8% | 14.1% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +0.7% | +1.2% |
Why Atalanta
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (our 65.1% × 1.46 − 1).
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 match preview
Atalanta is favored to win against Parma Calcio 1913 with a 60% probability, while a draw stands at 23% and Parma's chances are at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Atalanta, with a 10% likelihood. The model suggests a high-scoring match, with a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability that both teams will score. Expected goals are calculated at 2.26 for Atalanta and 1.20 for Parma.
In terms of recent form, Atalanta has recorded two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Parma has struggled with three losses, one win, and one draw. In their last four encounters, Atalanta has secured two wins, one draw, and one loss against Parma Calcio 1913. The confidence grade for this match is rated as A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atalanta and Parma Calcio 1913 expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Atalanta and Parma Calcio 1913 attack and defence ratings
Atalanta
Parma Calcio 1913
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 65.1% | 1.53 | -2.0% | 1.46 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.7% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 65.1% |
| Draw | 20.8% | |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 14.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% |
| No | 35.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win | 38.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 40.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 8.0% |
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 stats
Atalanta and Parma Calcio 1913 recent form
| Atalanta |
DLLWWL |
| Parma Calcio 1913 |
LLLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atalanta and Parma Calcio 1913 season so far
Atalanta record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Parma Calcio 1913 record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Atalanta | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Atalanta | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Atalanta | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2024-11-23 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Atalanta | Serie A | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.1%, draw 20.0%, away 12.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.89 | 7.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.42 | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.75 | 7.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 4.76 | 7.22 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.80 | 8.00 |