Fiorentina
vs
Atalanta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fiorentina
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.43.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 55%.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fiorentina vs Atalanta
| Probability | Fiorentina | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.1% | 23.4% | 22.5% |
| Market | 41.4% | 27.0% | 31.7% |
| Final | 44.6% | 26.1% | 29.4% |
| Edge | +3.2% | -0.9% | -2.3% |
Why Fiorentina
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.43.
- The market prices Fiorentina below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.0% per unit staked (our 44.6% × 2.40 − 1).
Fiorentina vs Atalanta match preview
Fiorentina hosts Atalanta in what promises to be an engaging Serie A clash. Fiorentina has a 45% likelihood of winning, while Atalanta's chances stand at 29%, with a 26% probability for a draw. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 2-1 in favor of Fiorentina, with an expected goals metric of 2.24 for Fiorentina and 1.43 for Atalanta.
Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with our model predicting a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% probability that both teams will find the net. Recent form shows Fiorentina with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Atalanta has two wins but also three losses in the same span. The head-to-head record favors Fiorentina slightly, with three wins compared to Atalanta's two in their last six encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fiorentina and Atalanta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.66
Fiorentina and Atalanta attack and defence ratings
Fiorentina
Atalanta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fiorentina vs Atalanta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 44.6% | 2.24 | +3.2% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 44.6% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Atalanta | 29.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.5% |
| No | 30.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fiorentina win | 34.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 45.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
Fiorentina vs Atalanta stats
Fiorentina and Atalanta recent form
| Fiorentina |
LLDWWL |
| Atalanta |
LLWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fiorentina and Atalanta season so far
Fiorentina record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
Atalanta record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Fiorentina | Atalanta | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Atalanta | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-30 | Fiorentina | Atalanta | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-15 | Atalanta | Fiorentina | Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2024-06-02 | Atalanta | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2023-09-17 | Fiorentina | Atalanta | Serie A | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.4%, draw 27.0%, away 31.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.68 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.33 | 3.58 | 2.97 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.54 | 3.09 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 3.24 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.54 | 3.01 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .