Inter
vs
Fiorentina
Garuda Lions Prediction: Inter
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.69.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Inter is the favourite, not a value bet.
Inter vs Fiorentina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inter vs Fiorentina
| Probability | Inter | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.8% | 19.7% | 21.5% |
| Market | 70.6% | 17.4% | 12.0% |
| Final | 67.6% | 18.0% | 14.4% |
| Edge | -2.9% | +0.6% | +2.4% |
Why Inter
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.41, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.7% per unit staked (our 67.6% × 1.41 − 1).
Inter vs Fiorentina match preview
Inter faces Fiorentina in their upcoming Serie A match, with Inter holding a strong 67% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.93 for Inter and 1.91 for Fiorentina. Inter's recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins and a draw in their last five matches, while Fiorentina has struggled, recording two losses and a draw in their last five outings.
Historically, Inter has been dominant in their recent encounters with Fiorentina, winning four of the last six matchups and drawing one, while Fiorentina has managed just one victory. Our model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 86% and both teams scoring at 81%, suggesting an engaging and potentially high-scoring affair.
Inter and Fiorentina team news
Inter news
- B. Pavard — thigh injury
- C. Jones — thigh injury
- J. Stones — injury
- L. Martinez — thigh injury
- Luis Henrique — thigh injury
Fiorentina news
- A. Atta — abdominal strain
- F. Parisi — knee injury
- L. Ranieri — leg injury
- R. Sottil — back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Inter and Fiorentina expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.43
Inter and Fiorentina attack and defence ratings
Inter
Fiorentina
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Inter vs Fiorentina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 67.6% | 1.48 | -2.9% | 1.41 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.6% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 67.6% |
| Draw | 18.0% | |
| Fiorentina | 14.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.4% |
| No | 22.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win | 40.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 41.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.6% |
| 3-1 | 6.9% | |
| 1-1 | 6.6% |
Inter vs Fiorentina stats
Inter and Fiorentina recent form
| Inter |
WWLWDW |
| Fiorentina |
LLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inter and Fiorentina season so far
Inter record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Fiorentina record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
Inter vs Fiorentina head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Fiorentina | Inter | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Inter | Fiorentina | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-10 | Inter | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-06 | Fiorentina | Inter | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2024-01-28 | Fiorentina | Inter | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-03 | Inter | Fiorentina | Serie A | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Inter vs Fiorentina odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.4%, draw 17.6%, away 12.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 5.56 | 7.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.25 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.36 | 5.30 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.36 | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.37 | 5.40 | 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.35 | 5.77 | 8.08 |
| SBO | 1.32 | 4.84 | 6.18 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .