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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk

1 – 0 Full time

32′PedrinhoEgor Nazaryna
36′Oleg Ocheretko
54′Marcus Thuram
59′Hakan ÇalhanoğluPiotr Zieliński
59′Djed SpenceAndy Diouf
59′Federico DimarcoYann Bisseck
66′Alessandro Bastoni
68′Marlon Gomes
68′Alessandro Bastoni
72′Petar Sučić
72′Oleg OcheretkoIsaque
72′Gleiker MendozaNewerton
72′Kauã EliasLassina Traore
73′Petar SučićLuis Henrique
75′Ange-Yoan BonnyHenrikh Mkhitaryan
77′Carlos Augusto
83′AlissonBruno Braga Ramos

San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, MilanReferee: Harm Osmers

Inter 68%
Draw 16%
Shakhtar Donetsk 16%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 4
45 Possession % 55
5 Corners 4
9 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 2
4 Saves 4
369 Accurate passes 484

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityInterDrawShakhtar Donetsk
Model36.6%24.7%38.8%
Market78.0%13.7%8.3%
Final67.6%16.5%15.9%
Edge-10.4%+2.7%+7.6%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Inter ↓ / Shakhtar Donet → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 11% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk expected goals

Inter 1.66
Shakhtar Donetsk 1.71

Total expected goals: 3.37

Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk attack and defence ratings

Inter

Attack 1.52 +52%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Shakhtar Donetsk

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 0.57 -43%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: result vs prediction

Inter 1 – 0 Shakhtar Donetsk

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Inter 67.6% 1.48 -10.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.6% 1.53 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.4% 1.48 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.1% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.5% 1.57 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Inter67.6%
Draw16.5%
Shakhtar Donetsk15.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%
Both teams to scoreYes67.4%
No32.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.1%
12 (either side)83.5%
X2 (draw or away)32.4%
Handicap -1Inter win18.8%
Push (exactly one goal)17.7%
Loss63.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.7%
1-28.3%
2-18.1%

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk stats

Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk recent form

newest first
Inter WLWDWL
Shakhtar Donetsk WWWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2Inter wins 3Draws 0Shakhtar Donetsk wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2021-11-24InterShakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League2-0
2021-09-28Shakhtar DonetskInterUEFA Champions League0-0
2020-12-09InterShakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League0-0
2020-10-27Shakhtar DonetskInterUEFA Champions League0-0
2020-08-17InterShakhtar DonetskUEFA Europa League5-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 78.0%, draw 13.7%, away 8.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.26 7.22 11.90
Bet365 1.22 6.50 12.00
BetVictor 1.20 7.00 12.00
Betano 1.27 6.70 11.50
Betfair 1.20 7.50 12.00
Dafabet 1.25 7.00 11.00
Marathonbet 1.24 7.10 11.75
Pinnacle 1.24 6.96 10.98
SBO 1.22 6.57 10.12
William Hill 1.22 6.00 10.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.23 ▲ +0.03
X 6.98 ▼ -0.02
2 11.62 ▲ +0.62

12 snapshots recorded, from .