UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC

5 – 1 Full time

12′Elliot Anderson
34′Phil Foden
45′Răzvan MarinAboubakary Koita
45′Barnabás VargaAmbrósini António Cabaça Salvador
52′Stavros Pilios
57′Rayan Cherki
59′Josko Gvardiol
62′Floyd SambaRyan McAidoo
63′João MárioOleksandr Zubkov
65′Phil Foden
72′Josko GvardiolVitor de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
72′Enzo FernándezRayan Aït-Nouri
76′Phil Foden
83′Rúben DiasKaden Braithwaite
83′Kervin ArriagaMijat Gaćinović
83′Luka JovicMilan Vitális

Etihad Stadium, ManchesterReferee: Willy Delajod

Manchester City 73%
Draw 13%
AEK Athens FC 13%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 3
64 Possession % 36
8 Corners 3
6 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 1
2 Saves 2
636 Accurate passes 345

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityManchester CityDrawAEK Athens FC
Model36.6%24.4%39.0%
Market85.6%9.5%4.9%
Final73.3%13.2%13.4%
Edge-12.2%+3.7%+8.5%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Manchester City

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Manchester Cit ↓ / AEK Athens FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Manchester City and AEK Athens FC expected goals

Manchester City 1.69
AEK Athens FC 1.75

Total expected goals: 3.44

Manchester City and AEK Athens FC attack and defence ratings

Manchester City

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.93 -7%

AEK Athens FC

Attack 1.45 +45%
Defence 0.63 -37%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC: result vs prediction

Manchester City 5 – 1 AEK Athens FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Manchester City 73.3% 1.36 -12.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.9% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.4% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 86.8% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.5% 1.57 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Manchester City73.3%
Draw13.2%
AEK Athens FC13.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%
Both teams to scoreYes68.4%
No31.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.6%
12 (either side)86.8%
X2 (draw or away)26.7%
Handicap -1Manchester City win18.9%
Push (exactly one goal)17.5%
Loss63.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.4%
1-28.3%
2-18.0%

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC stats

Manchester City and AEK Athens FC recent form

newest first

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 85.6%, draw 9.5%, away 4.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.16 10.60 17.50
Bet365 1.11 9.50 19.00
BetVictor 1.10 10.50 20.00
Betano 1.14 10.00 22.00
Betfair 1.11 11.00 21.00
Dafabet 1.12 10.00 20.00
Marathonbet 1.14 10.25 17.25
Pinnacle 1.12 10.19 21.78
SBO 1.12 9.26 16.36
William Hill 1.12 9.00 17.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.12 ▲ +0.06
X 10.09 ▼ -2.41
2 19.50 ▼ -15.00

12 snapshots recorded, from .