Manchester City
vs
AEK Athens FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: AEK Athens FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC
| Probability | Manchester City | Draw | AEK Athens FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.6% | 27.2% | 41.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.6% | 27.2% | 41.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC match preview
Manchester City faces AEK Athens FC in the UEFA Champions League on October 20, 2026. The match sees Manchester City with a 32% probability of winning, while AEK Athens FC holds a 41% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The chance of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 54%, and both teams scoring is projected at 59%.
In terms of expected goals, Manchester City is forecasted to achieve 1.32, while AEK Athens FC is slightly ahead with 1.53. Both teams are in strong recent form, with Manchester City recording six consecutive wins and AEK Athens FC also unbeaten in their last six matches, registering five wins and one draw. The confidence grade for this analysis is B.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Manchester City and AEK Athens FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Manchester City and AEK Athens FC attack and defence ratings
Manchester City
AEK Athens FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha — match page
- Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
- Liverpool vs Villarreal
- Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona — team news & stats
- VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
- FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven — match page
- Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt — team news & stats
- Roma vs Slovan Bratislava
Before and after this match
Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens FC | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 31.6% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| AEK Athens FC | 41.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% |
| No | 41.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Athens FC win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 58.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC stats
Manchester City and AEK Athens FC recent form
| Manchester City |
WWWWWW |
| AEK Athens FC |
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W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.