FC Porto
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Porto
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven
| Probability | FC Porto | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 22.9% | 24.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 52.8% | 22.9% | 24.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Porto
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven match preview
FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven are set to clash in the UEFA Champions League on October 20, 2026. The model indicates a 53% probability of a win for FC Porto, while PSV Eindhoven has a 24% chance of victory, and a draw stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of FC Porto, with a 9% likelihood.
In terms of offensive capabilities, FC Porto is expected to score 2.08 goals, compared to PSV Eindhoven's 1.38. The match also shows a high probability for over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 66%. Recent form highlights FC Porto's strong performance with four wins in their last six matches, while PSV Eindhoven has also been solid, with four wins in their last six games.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven attack and defence ratings
FC Porto
PSV Eindhoven
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha — match page
- Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
- Liverpool vs Villarreal
- Manchester City v AEK Athens FC — match page
- Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona — team news & stats
- VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
- Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt — team news & stats
- Roma vs Slovan Bratislava
Before and after this match
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 52.8% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| PSV Eindhoven | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.4% |
| No | 33.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win | 27.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.8% |
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven stats
FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven recent form
| FC Porto |
WWLWWW |
| PSV Eindhoven |
WLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.