PSV Eindhoven
vs
Feyenoord
Garuda Lions Prediction: PSV Eindhoven
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.72.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — PSV Eindhoven is the favourite, not a value bet.
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord overview
Garuda Lions analysis: PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord
| Probability | PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 22.9% | 32.6% |
| Market | 46.8% | 22.6% | 30.6% |
| Final | 46.3% | 22.6% | 31.1% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +0.1% | +0.5% |
Why PSV Eindhoven
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.72.
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (our 46.3% × 2.07 − 1).
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord match preview
PSV Eindhoven faces Feyenoord in an Eredivisie clash with both teams showing contrasting recent form. PSV Eindhoven has recorded two losses, a win, and a draw in their last five matches, while Feyenoord boasts four consecutive victories followed by a loss. According to our model, the probabilities suggest a 48% chance for a PSV Eindhoven win, a 30% chance for Feyenoord, and a 22% chance for a draw.
The expected goals indicate a competitive match, with PSV Eindhoven at 2.30 and Feyenoord at 2.10. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of PSV Eindhoven, with an 82% probability of over 2.5 goals and an 80% chance of both teams scoring. Historically, PSV Eindhoven has won both of their last encounters against Feyenoord.
PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord team news
PSV Eindhoven news
- A. Nagalo — injury
- A. Plea — surgery
- J. Schouten — knee injury
- K. Sildillia — surgery
- P. Wanner — foot injury
- R. Pepi — injury
- R. van Bommel — inactive
- S. Lammers — lacking match fitness
- S. Mijnans — suspended
- S. Ouaissa — muscle injury
Feyenoord news
- B. Nieuwkoop — knee injury
- G. Smal — ankle injury
- J. Bos — knee injury
- J. Moder — knee injury
- R. Nelson — muscle injury
- S. van Persie — knock
- T. Beelen — broken leg
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.75
PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord attack and defence ratings
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 46.3% | 2.16 | -0.6% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 46.3% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Feyenoord | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% |
| No | 27.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord stats
PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord recent form
| PSV Eindhoven |
WLLWLW |
| Feyenoord |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord season so far
PSV Eindhoven record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Feyenoord record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | PSV Eindhoven | Feyenoord | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Feyenoord | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 22.6%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 4.28 | 3.24 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 4.10 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 4.15 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 4.20 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 4.15 | 3.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.03 | 4.30 | 3.06 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.54 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.90 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .