ADO Den Haag
vs
Heerenveen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heerenveen
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Heerenveen is the favourite, not a value bet.
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen
| Probability | ADO Den Haag | Draw | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.5% | 26.1% | 39.4% |
| Market | 28.5% | 24.4% | 47.0% |
| Final | 30.0% | 24.8% | 45.1% |
| Edge | +1.5% | +0.4% | -1.9% |
Why Heerenveen
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 45.1% × 2.09 − 1).
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen match preview
In the upcoming Eredivisie match, ADO Den Haag faces Heerenveen with a kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, ADO Den Haag has a 31% chance of winning, while Heerenveen is favored with a 44% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2 in favor of Heerenveen, with an expected goals tally of 1.49 for ADO Den Haag and 1.60 for Heerenveen.
Recent form shows ADO Den Haag with a record of W-D-D-L-L-D, indicating some struggles, while Heerenveen has a slightly better performance with W-L-W-D-L-D. Our model suggests a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score, reflecting an expectation for a competitive match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen team news
ADO Den Haag news
- D. Barany — thigh injury
- L. Reischl — groin injury
Heerenveen news
- D. Proper — hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen attack and defence ratings
ADO Den Haag
Heerenveen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 45.1% | 2.22 | -1.9% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ADO Den Haag | 30.0% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Heerenveen | 45.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heerenveen win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 60.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen stats
ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen recent form
| ADO Den Haag |
WDDLLD |
| Heerenveen |
WLWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen season so far
ADO Den Haag record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heerenveen record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.5%, draw 24.5%, away 47.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.42 | 3.87 | 2.03 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.90 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.85 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.90 | 2.09 |
| Marathonbet | 3.32 | 3.75 | 1.97 |
| Pinnacle | 3.46 | 3.81 | 2.00 |
| SBO | 2.88 | 3.34 | 1.99 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .