NEC Nijmegen
vs
Groningen
Garuda Lions Prediction: NEC Nijmegen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — NEC Nijmegen is the favourite, not a value bet.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
| Probability | NEC Nijmegen | Draw | Groningen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.8% | 21.1% | 42.0% |
| Market | 42.0% | 24.2% | 33.8% |
| Final | 40.7% | 23.5% | 35.8% |
| Edge | -1.3% | -0.8% | +2.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.35 − 1).
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen match preview
NEC Nijmegen faces Groningen in an Eredivisie clash on October 25, 2026. According to our model, NEC Nijmegen has a 40% chance of winning, while Groningen stands at 36%, with a 24% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of NEC Nijmegen, occurring at a 6% probability. The expected goals are 1.34 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.16 for Groningen, indicating a potentially high-scoring match, as our model predicts a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance for both teams to score.
In terms of recent form, NEC Nijmegen has recorded three draws, two losses, and one win, while Groningen has two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. The head-to-head record shows both teams with one win each in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen team news
NEC Nijmegen news
- B. Nuytinck — ankle injury
- D. Tadic — calf injury
- E. Mor — groin injury
- P. Sandler — injury
- Y. Moslih — inactive
Groningen news
- E. van der Laan — injury
- M. Jeng — leg injury
- T. Mercera — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.29
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen attack and defence ratings
NEC Nijmegen
Groningen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 40.7% | 2.46 | -1.3% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 40.7% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Groningen | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.5% |
| No | 21.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC Nijmegen win | 20.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 63.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-2 | 7.0% | |
| 1-1 | 6.9% |
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen stats
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen recent form
| NEC Nijmegen |
WDDDDL |
| Groningen |
LWWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen season so far
NEC Nijmegen record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Groningen record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Groningen | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.9%, draw 24.4%, away 33.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.96 | 2.79 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.95 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 3.95 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.84 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.95 | 2.85 |
| SBO | 2.17 | 3.45 | 2.51 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .