Dinamo Zagreb
vs
NEC Nijmegen
2 – 4 Full time
| 23′ | Dion Drena Beljo | ||
| 25′ | Clement Bischoff | ||
| 33′ | Dion Drena Beljo | ||
| 37′ | Dion Drena Beljo | ||
| 43′ | Noe Lebreton | ||
| 45′ | Bryan Linssen | ||
| 54′ | Bryan Linssen | ||
| 59′ | Iker Almena HorcajoDani Rodríguez | ||
| 67′ | Arber HoxhaMislav Oršić | ||
| 67′ | Niko GalesicMoris Valincic | ||
| 76′ | Dennis GeigerJamiro Monteiro | ||
| 76′ | Matteo Perez VinlöfBruno Goda | ||
| 76′ | Luka IvanušecLukas Kacavenda | ||
| 80′ | Tjaronn Chery | ||
| 81′ | Deveron FonvilleKevin Kers | ||
| 81′ | Perr SchuursGabriel·Bras | ||
| 90′ | Tjaronn CheryWillum Thor Willumsson | ||
| 90′ | Bryan LinssenKaj Sierhuis | ||
| 90′ | Clement Bischoff |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 7 |
| 436 | Accurate passes | 284 |
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen
| Probability | Dinamo Zagreb | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.0% | 14.0% | 8.9% |
| Market | 64.6% | 20.1% | 15.3% |
| Final | 67.7% | 18.6% | 13.7% |
| Edge | +3.1% | -1.5% | -1.6% |
Why Dinamo Zagreb
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.04 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Dinamo Zagreb below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dinamo Zagreb and NEC Nijmegen expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.07
Dinamo Zagreb and NEC Nijmegen attack and defence ratings
Dinamo Zagreb
NEC Nijmegen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen: result vs prediction
Dinamo Zagreb 2 – 4 NEC Nijmegen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
- Juventus v Rennes — match page
- Sturm Graz vs Marseille
- Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense — team news & stats
- OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats
- Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — team news & stats
- Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar — match page
- Bournemouth v AC Milan — match page
Before and after this match
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 67.7% | 1.48 | +3.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.3% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Dinamo Zagreb win | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 67.7% |
| Draw | 18.6% | |
| NEC Nijmegen | 13.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% |
| No | 38.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dinamo Zagreb win | 58.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 23.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-0 | 8.0% |
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen stats
Dinamo Zagreb and NEC Nijmegen recent form
| Dinamo Zagreb |
WWLWDL |
| NEC Nijmegen |
DDDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.6%, draw 20.1%, away 15.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.77 | 6.24 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.70 | 6.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.91 | 6.31 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .