Lech Poznan
vs
Sunderland
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lech Poznan
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
| Probability | Lech Poznan | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.6% | 19.7% | 18.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.6% | 19.7% | 18.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Lech Poznan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland match preview
Lech Poznan hosts Sunderland in the UEFA Europa League with a strong probability of winning at 62%, while a draw stands at 20% and Sunderland at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.50 for Lech Poznan compared to 1.36 for Sunderland. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are projected to score in 69% of scenarios.
In terms of recent form, Lech Poznan has recorded three wins in their last six matches, while Sunderland has also shown resilience with four positive results in their last six games. The confidence grade for this match is rated at B, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions made by our model.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lech Poznan and Sunderland expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.85
Lech Poznan and Sunderland attack and defence ratings
Lech Poznan
Sunderland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Juventus v Rennes — match page
- Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats
- Sturm Graz vs Marseille
- Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense — team news & stats
- OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats
- Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — team news & stats
- Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar — match page
- Bournemouth v AC Milan — match page
Before and after this match
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 61.6% |
| Draw | 19.7% | |
| Sunderland | 18.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% |
| No | 31.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win | 41.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 38.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | |
| 3-1 | 7.5% |
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland stats
Lech Poznan and Sunderland recent form
| Lech Poznan |
WLLWWW |
| Sunderland |
LWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.