Sunderland
vs
Leeds
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sunderland
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.52.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 64%.
Sunderland vs Leeds overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sunderland vs Leeds
| Probability | Sunderland | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.2% | 24.5% | 28.4% |
| Market | 32.5% | 29.9% | 37.6% |
| Final | 36.2% | 28.6% | 35.3% |
| Edge | +3.7% | -1.4% | -2.3% |
Why Sunderland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.52.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sunderland below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +11.4% per unit staked (our 36.2% × 3.08 − 1).
Sunderland vs Leeds match preview
Sunderland faces Leeds in a Premier League clash on October 25, 2026. Sunderland's recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Leeds has recorded two draws and four losses. According to our model, Sunderland has a 35% chance of winning, Leeds 37%, and a draw stands at 28%. The expected goals for Sunderland is 1.92, slightly higher than Leeds’ 1.58.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a 7% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 70% likelihood for both teams to find the net, and a 70% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals. The head-to-head record in their last two encounters favors Sunderland with one win and one draw against Leeds, who have yet to secure a victory.
Sunderland and Leeds team news
Sunderland news
- D. Ballard — muscle injury
- K. Danso — suspended
- R. Mundle — knee injury
- T. Meunier — muscle injury
- W. Isidor — injury
Leeds news
- D. James — back injury
- J. Rodon — muscle injury
- M. Joseph — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sunderland and Leeds expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Sunderland and Leeds attack and defence ratings
Sunderland
Leeds
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sunderland vs Leeds markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sunderland | 36.2% | 2.77 | +3.7% | 3.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sunderland | 36.2% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Leeds | 35.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% |
| No | 31.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sunderland win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 52.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 6.9% |
Sunderland vs Leeds stats
Sunderland and Leeds recent form
| Sunderland |
DLWLLW |
| Leeds |
DLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sunderland and Leeds season so far
Sunderland record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leeds record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Sunderland vs Leeds head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Leeds | Sunderland | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Sunderland | Leeds | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sunderland vs Leeds odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.7%, draw 29.6%, away 37.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.08 | 3.30 | 2.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 3.00 | 3.22 | 2.51 |
| Pinnacle | 3.01 | 3.24 | 2.55 |
| SBO | 2.85 | 3.04 | 2.22 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| sport888 | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .