Chelsea
vs
Tottenham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chelsea
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.55.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Chelsea is the favourite, not a value bet.
Chelsea vs Tottenham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chelsea vs Tottenham
| Probability | Chelsea | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.2% | 23.8% | 28.0% |
| Market | 55.3% | 22.8% | 21.9% |
| Final | 53.5% | 23.0% | 23.4% |
| Edge | -1.8% | +0.3% | +1.5% |
Why Chelsea
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.55.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (our 53.5% × 1.79 − 1).
Chelsea vs Tottenham match preview
Chelsea hosts Tottenham in a Premier League clash with Chelsea holding a 51% probability of victory compared to Tottenham's 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 72% likelihood for over 2.5 goals in the match, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter. Chelsea's expected goals stand at 2.00, while Tottenham's is at 1.61.
In terms of recent form, Chelsea has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Tottenham has struggled with no wins, two draws, and three losses in their recent outings. Historically, Chelsea has dominated this fixture, winning all of the last six encounters against Tottenham. The confidence grade for this match is rated as A, suggesting a strong expectation for Chelsea's performance.
Chelsea and Tottenham team news
Chelsea news
- E. Emegha — muscle injury
- E. Martinez — broken jawbone
- J. Gittens — ankle injury
- M. Gusto — illness
- P. Chavarria — injury
- R. James — knee injury
Tottenham news
- — muscle injury
- D. Udogie — knee injury
- L. Bergvall — knee injury
- M. Mudryk — ankle injury
- R. Bentancur — suspended
- W. Odobert — knee injury
- X. Simons — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chelsea and Tottenham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.51
Chelsea and Tottenham attack and defence ratings
Chelsea
Tottenham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Ipswich v Nottingham Forest — match page
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats
- Arsenal v Everton — match page
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats
- Liverpool vs Brighton
- Manchester United v Bournemouth — match page
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United — team news & stats
- Hull City vs Brentford
Before and after this match
Chelsea vs Tottenham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 53.5% | 1.87 | -1.8% | 1.79 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 53.5% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Tottenham | 23.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% |
| No | 29.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 51.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Chelsea vs Tottenham stats
Chelsea and Tottenham recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chelsea and Tottenham season so far
Chelsea record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Tottenham record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Chelsea vs Tottenham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Chelsea | Tottenham | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chelsea | Tottenham | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Tottenham | Chelsea | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-03 | Chelsea | Tottenham | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-08 | Tottenham | Chelsea | Premier League | 3-4 |
| 2024-05-02 | Chelsea | Tottenham | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-06 | Tottenham | Chelsea | Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2023-02-26 | Tottenham | Chelsea | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2022-08-14 | Chelsea | Tottenham | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2022-01-23 | Chelsea | Tottenham | Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chelsea vs Tottenham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.3%, draw 22.8%, away 21.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 4.40 | 4.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.15 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 4.33 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 4.28 | 4.37 |
| SBO | 1.69 | 3.65 | 3.83 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| onexbet | 1.75 | 4.37 | 4.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .