Liverpool
vs
Chelsea
1 – 1 Full time
| 11′ | Lewis Koumas | ||
| 21′ | James McConnell | ||
| 40′ | Morgan Rogers | ||
| 43′ | Cody Gakpo | ||
| 45′ | Maxence LacroixLevi Colwill | ||
| 50′ | Josh Acheampong | ||
| 59′ | Lewis KoumasBradley Barcola | ||
| 59′ | James McConnellFlorian Wirtz | ||
| 68′ | Danny WelbeckEmanuel Emegha | ||
| 68′ | Malo GustoMarco Palestra | ||
| 68′ | Moises CaicedoValentin Barco | ||
| 72′ | Virgil van DijkJérémy Jacquet | ||
| 73′ | Romeo Lavia | ||
| 81′ | Treymaurice NyoniAlexis Mac Allister | ||
| 82′ | Rio NgumohaAlexander Isak | ||
| 91′ | Alexis Mac Allister | ||
| 92′ | Pedro Neto | ||
| 93′ | Alexander Isak | ||
| 94′ | Morgan Rogers | ||
| 94′ | Cody Gakpo | ||
| 95′ | Romeo Lavia | ||
| 96′ | Florian Wirtz | ||
| 99′ | Jordan Henderson | ||
| 100′ | Bradley Barcola | ||
| 101′ | Levi Colwill | ||
| 103′ | Joe Gomez |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 347 | Accurate passes | 334 |
Liverpool vs Chelsea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool vs Chelsea
| Probability | Liverpool | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.8% | 21.8% | 31.4% |
| Market | 45.0% | 24.3% | 30.7% |
| Final | 45.4% | 23.7% | 30.9% |
| Edge | +0.5% | -0.6% | +0.2% |
Why Liverpool
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.78.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Liverpool and Chelsea expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.99
Liverpool and Chelsea attack and defence ratings
Liverpool
Chelsea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: result vs prediction
Liverpool 1 – 1 Chelsea
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Liverpool vs Chelsea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 45.4% | 2.20 | +0.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 45.4% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Chelsea | 30.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.9% |
| No | 25.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 52.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.0% |
| 1-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Liverpool vs Chelsea stats
Liverpool vs Chelsea head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Liverpool | Chelsea | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Chelsea | Liverpool | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Chelsea | Liverpool | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-20 | Liverpool | Chelsea | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-25 | Chelsea | Liverpool | League Cup | 0-1 |
| 2024-01-31 | Liverpool | Chelsea | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2023-08-13 | Chelsea | Liverpool | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-04 | Chelsea | Liverpool | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2023-01-21 | Liverpool | Chelsea | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2022-05-14 | Chelsea | Liverpool | FA Cup | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Liverpool vs Chelsea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.0%, draw 24.3%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 3.92 | 3.11 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.19 | 3.92 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.17 | 3.87 | 3.18 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.56 | 2.86 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
82 snapshots recorded, from .