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League Cup · Full time ·Round of 16

Manchester City vs Brighton

2 – 2 Full time

11′Michael Svoboda
30′Malick Yalcouyé
32′Ayyoub Bouaddi
40′Mateo Kovačić
45′Ayyoub BouaddiRayan Aït-Nouri
45′Floyd SambaRyan McAidoo
47′Georginio Rutter
61′Allan Andrade EliasJeremy Doku
72′Vitor de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
76′Rico LewisAbdukodir Khusanov
76′Diego GomezYankuba Minteh
76′Jack HinshelwoodMaxim De Cuyper
81′Georginio RutterMatt O'Riley
81′Malick YalcouyéMats Wieffer
85′Michael SvobodaLewis Dunk
87′Nico O'ReillyEnzo Fernández
90′Mats Wieffer
90′Lewis Dunk
91′Phil Foden
92′Pascal Groß
92′Enzo Fernández
93′Matt O'Riley
94′Jeremy Doku
94′Maxim De Cuyper
97′Rayan Cherki

Etihad Stadium, ManchesterReferee: Andrew Madley

Manchester City 49%
Draw 23%
Brighton 28%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 6
57 Possession % 43
3 Corners 7
3 Fouls 20
4 Offsides 3
4 Saves 1
448 Accurate passes 320

Manchester City vs Brighton overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester City vs Brighton

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityManchester CityDrawBrighton
Model37.2%23.6%39.2%
Market53.1%23.1%23.8%
Final49.1%23.2%27.7%
Edge-4.0%+0.1%+3.8%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Manchester Cit ↓ / Brighton → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 5% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Manchester City and Brighton expected goals

Manchester City 1.79
Brighton 1.84

Total expected goals: 3.62

Manchester City and Brighton attack and defence ratings

Manchester City

Attack 1.65 +65%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Brighton

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Manchester City vs Brighton: result vs prediction

Manchester City 2 – 2 Brighton

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 16 fixtures

League Cup

Before and after this match

Manchester City vs Brighton markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Manchester City 49.1% 2.04 -4.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.1% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.8% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.8% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.8% 1.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Manchester City49.1%
Draw23.2%
Brighton27.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%
Both teams to scoreYes70.8%
No29.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.3%
12 (either side)76.8%
X2 (draw or away)50.9%
Handicap -1Manchester City win19.8%
Push (exactly one goal)17.4%
Loss62.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.6%
1-28.0%
2-17.8%

Manchester City vs Brighton stats

Manchester City and Brighton recent form

newest first
Manchester City LWWLWW
Brighton LDWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Manchester City vs Brighton head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Manchester City wins 3Draws 2Brighton wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-07Manchester CityBrightonPremier League1-1
2025-08-31BrightonManchester CityPremier League2-1
2025-03-15Manchester CityBrightonPremier League2-2
2024-11-09BrightonManchester CityPremier League2-1
2024-04-25BrightonManchester CityPremier League0-4
2023-10-21Manchester CityBrightonPremier League2-1
2023-05-24BrightonManchester CityPremier League1-1
2022-10-22Manchester CityBrightonPremier League3-1
2022-04-20Manchester CityBrightonPremier League3-0
2021-10-23BrightonManchester CityPremier League1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Manchester City vs Brighton odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 53.1%, draw 23.1%, away 23.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.72 4.40 4.57
Bet365 1.83 4.00 3.70
BetVictor 1.65 4.33 4.60
Betano 1.87 4.25 3.95
Betfair 1.80 4.00 3.80
Dafabet 1.65 4.50 4.70
Marathonbet 1.83 4.15 4.10
Pinnacle 1.85 4.15 3.91
SBO 1.81 3.80 3.44
William Hill 1.65 4.00 4.33

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.81 ▲ +0.15
X 4.15 ▼ -0.10
2 4.03 ▼ -0.47

16 snapshots recorded, from .