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League Cup · Full time ·Round of 16

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal

1 – 1 Full time

21′Aaron Loupalo-Bi
45′Marli SalmonMartin Odegaard
45′Jurriën TimberBen White
50′Viktor Gyökeres
54′Crispin McLean
66′Crispin McLeanAdam Murphy
66′Ched EvansRonan Coughlan
66′Ceadach O'NeillEberechi Eze
74′Jake Thomas Batty
74′Mark HelmAndy Cannon
82′Martín ZubimendiBruno Guimarães
82′Myles Lewis-SkellyEzri Konsa
82′Aaron Loupalo-BiWill davies
85′Max Dowman
86′Andy Cannon
91′Ronan Coughlan
92′Martin Odegaard
93′Harrison Neal
93′Kai Havertz
94′Will davies
95′Viktor Gyökeres
95′Andy Cannon
97′Conor Haughey

Highbury Stadium, FleetwoodReferee: Michael Salisbury

Fleetwood Town 7%
Draw 12%
Arsenal 81%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

3 Shots 26
2 Shots on target 7
48 Possession % 52
2 Corners 5
14 Fouls 5
3 Offsides 3
5 Saves 1
99 Accurate passes 566

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFleetwood TownDrawArsenal
Model18.2%23.9%57.9%
Market3.5%8.3%88.2%
Final7.2%12.2%80.6%
Edge+3.7%+3.9%-7.6%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Arsenal

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.01.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fleetwood Town ↓ / Arsenal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 9% 10% 6% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Fleetwood Town and Arsenal expected goals

Fleetwood Town 1.01
Arsenal 1.93

Total expected goals: 2.94

Fleetwood Town and Arsenal attack and defence ratings

Fleetwood Town

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Arsenal

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal: result vs prediction

Fleetwood Town 1 – 1 Arsenal

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 16 fixtures

League Cup

Before and after this match

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Arsenal 80.6% 1.24 -7.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.4% 1.77 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.4% 1.81 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 92.8% 1.08 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.3% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fleetwood Town7.2%
Draw12.2%
Arsenal80.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%
Both teams to scoreYes55.4%
No44.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)19.4%
12 (either side)87.8%
X2 (draw or away)92.8%
Handicap -1Arsenal win34.8%
Push (exactly one goal)22.9%
Loss42.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
1-29.9%
0-29.9%

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal stats

Fleetwood Town and Arsenal recent form

newest first
Fleetwood Town LLWDLL
Arsenal WDWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 3.5%, draw 8.3%, away 88.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 31.00 11.50 1.10
Bet365 17.00 12.00 1.08
BetVictor 31.00 12.00 1.06
Betano 24.00 9.75 1.10
Betfair 23.00 11.00 1.07
Dafabet 28.00 12.00 1.09
Marathonbet 31.00 11.50 1.10
Pinnacle 27.92 11.53 1.08
SBO 14.44 7.91 1.07
William Hill 26.00 10.00 1.08

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 26.96 ▼ -2.04
X 11.50 ▼ -0.50
2 1.08 ▲ +0.02

80 snapshots recorded, from .