Arsenal
vs
Everton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arsenal
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Arsenal vs Everton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arsenal vs Everton
| Probability | Arsenal | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.4% | 22.2% | 16.4% |
| Market | 68.0% | 20.9% | 11.1% |
| Final | 66.4% | 21.2% | 12.4% |
| Edge | -6.6% | +1.4% | +5.2% |
Why Arsenal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Arsenal vs Everton match preview
Arsenal faces Everton in a Premier League clash on October 24, 2026, with a strong probability of victory for the home side at 66%. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1, with Arsenal expected to score 2.11 goals compared to Everton's 1.09. The analysis indicates a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% likelihood that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Arsenal winning four of their last six matches, while Everton has secured two wins, alongside two draws and two losses. In their last six encounters, Arsenal has dominated with four wins and two draws, leaving Everton without a victory. This context supports a high confidence grade of A for Arsenal's prospects in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arsenal and Everton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Arsenal and Everton attack and defence ratings
Arsenal
Everton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arsenal vs Everton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 66.4% | 1.51 | -6.6% | 1.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.6% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 39.9% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 66.4% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Everton | 12.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% |
| No | 39.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 39.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 38.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
Arsenal vs Everton stats
Arsenal and Everton recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arsenal and Everton season so far
Arsenal record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Everton record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Arsenal vs Everton head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Arsenal | Everton | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Everton | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Everton | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-14 | Arsenal | Everton | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-19 | Arsenal | Everton | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-17 | Everton | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arsenal vs Everton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.2%, draw 20.7%, away 11.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 4.93 | 8.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.60 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.55 | 8.50 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.75 | 8.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 4.80 | 8.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.40 | 4.41 | 8.54 |
| SBO | 1.33 | 4.24 | 7.34 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| winamax_de | 1.37 | 4.70 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .