Crystal Palace
vs
Newcastle United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newcastle United
1 β 2 Predicted score Β· 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this β Newcastle United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
| Probability | Crystal Palace | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.3% | 23.1% | 29.6% |
| Market | 32.8% | 26.1% | 41.0% |
| Final | 36.4% | 25.4% | 38.2% |
| Edge | +3.6% | -0.8% | -2.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.2% per unit staked (our 38.2% Γ 2.38 β 1).
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United match preview
Crystal Palace faces Newcastle United in a Premier League clash on October 25, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities suggest a close contest, with Crystal Palace at 36%, a draw at 26%, and Newcastle United slightly ahead at 38%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 2.04 for Crystal Palace and 1.68 for Newcastle United. Both teams are anticipated to score, with a 73% likelihood for this outcome.
In terms of recent form, Crystal Palace has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches, while Newcastle United has had a mixed run with two wins, three losses, and a draw. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters shows Crystal Palace winning twice, Newcastle United three times, and one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this matchup stands at B.
Crystal Palace and Newcastle United team news
Crystal Palace news
- C. Riad β knee injury
- D. Henderson β foot injury
- J. Larsen β injury
- Q. Timber β injury
- T. Tomiyasu β calf injury
Newcastle United news
- A. Elanga β knee injury
- E. Jaouen β muscle injury
- J. Ramsey β thigh injury
- V. Livramento β knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Crystal Palace and Newcastle United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.72
Crystal Palace and Newcastle United attack and defence ratings
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle United | 38.2% | 2.62 | -2.9% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.1% | 1.37 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.4% | 1.42 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 36.4% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Newcastle United | 38.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.1% |
| No | 26.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle United win | 15.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.6% | |
| Loss | 70.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United stats
Crystal Palace and Newcastle United recent form
| Crystal Palace |
DLLWDW |
| Newcastle United |
LLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crystal Palace and Newcastle United season so far
Crystal Palace record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Newcastle United record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Crystal Palace | Newcastle United | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-16 | Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2024-11-30 | Crystal Palace | Newcastle United | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-24 | Crystal Palace | Newcastle United | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-21 | Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.7%, draw 26.2%, away 41.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 3.74 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.70 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.70 | 2.37 |
| Marathonbet | 2.96 | 3.64 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.95 | 3.67 | 2.37 |
| SBO | 2.61 | 3.26 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .