Garuda Lions
Today
Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 7

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

0 – 1 Full time

St James' Park, Newcastle upon TyneReferee: Jarred Gillett

Newcastle United 37%
Draw 25%
Aston Villa 37%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNewcastle UnitedDrawAston Villa
Model28.9%22.9%48.2%
Market40.1%26.0%33.9%
Final37.3%25.2%37.5%
Edge-11.2%-3.1%+14.3%

Confidence: High

Why Aston Villa

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.60.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Aston Villa below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Newcastle Unit ↓ / Aston Villa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 9% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

Newcastle United and Aston Villa expected goals

Newcastle United 1.60
Aston Villa 2.17

Total expected goals: 3.77

Newcastle United and Aston Villa attack and defence ratings

Newcastle United

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Aston Villa

Attack 1.56 +56%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: result vs prediction

Newcastle United 0 – 1 Aston Villa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Aston Villa 37.5% 2.67 +14.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.0% 1.35 — —
Both teams to score Yes 73.3% 1.37 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.8% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Newcastle United37.3%
Draw25.2%
Aston Villa37.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.0%
Under 2.526.0%
Both teams to scoreYes73.3%
No26.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.5%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)62.7%
Handicap -1Aston Villa win29.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.9%
Loss51.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.9%
1-28.4%
2-27.1%

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa stats

Newcastle United and Aston Villa recent form

newest first
Newcastle United LWLWDW
Aston Villa WDWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Newcastle United and Aston Villa going into this match

league record before kick-off

Newcastle United record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Aston Villa record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Newcastle United wins 2Draws 3Aston Villa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-14Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedEngland FA Cup1-3
2026-01-25Newcastle UnitedAston VillaPremier League0-2
2025-08-16Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedPremier League0-0
2025-04-19Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedPremier League4-1
2024-12-26Newcastle UnitedAston VillaPremier League3-0
2024-01-30Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedPremier League1-3
2023-08-12Newcastle UnitedAston VillaPremier League5-1
2023-07-23Newcastle UnitedAston VillaPremier League - Summer Series3-3
2023-04-15Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedPremier League3-0
2022-10-29Newcastle UnitedAston VillaPremier League4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 25.8%, away 33.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.44 3.78 2.94
Bet365 2.40 3.60 2.75
BetVictor 2.30 3.70 2.70
Betano 2.25 3.70 3.00
Betfair 2.30 3.60 2.90
Dafabet 2.31 3.70 3.00
Marathonbet 2.38 3.68 2.86
Pinnacle 2.42 3.70 2.90
SBO 2.21 3.28 2.68
William Hill 2.30 3.50 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.39 ▲ +0.29
X 3.69 ▼ -0.13
2 2.83 ▼ -0.37

56 snapshots recorded, from .