Aston Villa
vs
Fenerbahçe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aston Villa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
| Probability | Aston Villa | Draw | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.7% | 25.8% | 45.5% |
| Market | 56.2% | 24.0% | 19.8% |
| Final | 49.3% | 24.4% | 26.2% |
| Edge | -27.5% | +1.8% | +25.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe match preview
Aston Villa faces Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League on October 14, 2026. The match sees Aston Villa with a 48% probability of winning, while Fenerbahçe has a 27% chance, and a draw stands at 25%. The expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with Aston Villa projected to score 1.33 and Fenerbahçe 1.72. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Aston Villa, occurring with a 7% probability.
Recent form shows Aston Villa with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Fenerbahçe has recorded three wins, two draws, and one loss. In their last head-to-head meeting, Aston Villa secured a victory, adding to their confidence going into this fixture. The probabilities indicate a good chance for both teams to score, with 61% likelihood for that outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.05
Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe attack and defence ratings
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Feyenoord v Como — match page
- Lask Linz vs Liverpool — team news & stats
- Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain
- Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
- Roma vs Real Madrid
- Real Betis v FC Porto — match page
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC — team news & stats
- Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart
Before and after this match
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 49.3% | 2.03 | -27.5% | 1.74 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 49.3% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Fenerbahçe | 26.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aston Villa win | 12.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.8% | |
| Loss | 71.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe stats
Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe recent form
| Aston Villa |
WWLWDL |
| Fenerbahçe |
WDDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe season so far
Fenerbahçe record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 69% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | Fenerbahçe | Aston Villa | UEFA Europa League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.2%, draw 24.0%, away 19.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 4.06 | 5.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.65 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.95 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 4.06 | 4.74 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 3.53 | 3.96 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .