Arsenal
vs
Lille
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arsenal
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Arsenal vs Lille overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arsenal vs Lille
| Probability | Arsenal | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.6% | 21.6% | 14.8% |
| Market | 76.0% | 15.8% | 8.2% |
| Final | 72.9% | 17.3% | 9.8% |
| Edge | -12.4% | +5.8% | +6.6% |
Why Arsenal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Arsenal vs Lille match preview
Arsenal faces Lille in the UEFA Champions League with a strong probability of winning at 64%, while the draw stands at 22% and Lille at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favor of Arsenal, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Arsenal is 2.13 compared to Lille's 0.95, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Arsenal has recorded five wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Lille has three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 59%, and both teams scoring is at 55%, suggesting a potentially dynamic match with Arsenal likely to dominate the scoring opportunities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arsenal and Lille expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Arsenal and Lille attack and defence ratings
Arsenal
Lille
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Lens v Sporting CP — match page
- Sabah FA vs Slavia Praha — team news & stats
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven — match page
- Inter vs Club Brugge KV — team news & stats
- Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
- Villarreal v Napoli — match page
- Galatasaray vs Barcelona — team news & stats
- Viking vs Bayern Munich
Before and after this match
Arsenal vs Lille markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 72.9% | 1.37 | -12.4% | 1.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.2% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 72.9% |
| Draw | 17.3% | |
| Lille | 9.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 40.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 36.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.5% |
| 1-1 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Arsenal vs Lille stats
Arsenal vs Lille head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Arsenal vs Lille odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.0%, draw 15.8%, away 8.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 5.81 | 13.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.23 | 5.90 | 15.00 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.27 | 6.20 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 5.55 | 13.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.25 | 6.07 | 10.51 |
| SBO | 1.22 | 5.03 | 8.10 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .