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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 2

Arsenal vs Lille

3 – 0 Full time

29′Mikel Merino
64′Jurriën Timber
65′Mikel MerinoMartin Odegaard
65′Viktor GyökeresKai Havertz
65′Noni MaduekeBukayo Saka
67′Eberechi Eze
71′Bukayo Saka
72′Ngal'ayel MukauMaurits Kjaergaard
72′Nabil BentalebOsame Sahraoui
78′Romain PerraudCalvin Verdonk
78′Ayase UedaOlivier Giroud
78′Jurriën TimberBen White
81′Maxima Goffi
82′Dilane BakwaSoriba Diaoune
85′Eberechi EzeMax Dowman
90′Kai Havertz

Emirates Stadium, LondonReferee: Felix Zwayer

Arsenal 75%
Draw 16%
Lille 9%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 4
8 Shots on target 0
58 Possession % 42
7 Corners 0
13 Fouls 9
4 Offsides 3
0 Saves 5
439 Accurate passes 295

Arsenal vs Lille overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Arsenal vs Lille

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityArsenalDrawLille
Model62.4%22.1%15.5%
Market79.8%13.7%6.4%
Final75.5%15.8%8.7%
Edge-4.4%+2.1%+2.3%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Arsenal

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.97.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Arsenal ↓ / Lille → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 9% 10% 2 10% 10% 3 7% 7% 4+ 6% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Arsenal and Lille expected goals

Arsenal 2.10
Lille 0.97

Total expected goals: 3.06

Arsenal and Lille attack and defence ratings

Arsenal

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Lille

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Arsenal vs Lille: result vs prediction

Arsenal 3 – 0 Lille

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Arsenal vs Lille markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Arsenal 75.5% 1.32 -4.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.0% 1.69 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.3% 1.81 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 91.3% 1.10 — —
Handicap -1 Arsenal win 39.6% 2.52 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Arsenal75.5%
Draw15.8%
Lille8.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%
Both teams to scoreYes55.3%
No44.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)91.3%
12 (either side)84.2%
X2 (draw or away)24.5%
Handicap -1Arsenal win39.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.8%
Loss37.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.4%
2-010.3%
2-19.9%

Arsenal vs Lille stats

Arsenal and Lille recent form

newest first
Arsenal WLWWWW
Lille WLWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Arsenal vs Lille head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Arsenal vs Lille odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 79.8%, draw 13.7%, away 6.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.23 7.06 16.00
Bet365 1.20 7.00 13.00
BetVictor 1.18 7.00 15.00
Betano 1.23 6.60 15.50
Betfair 1.20 7.00 15.00
Dafabet 1.21 7.00 13.00
Marathonbet 1.21 6.60 15.25
Pinnacle 1.20 7.03 15.37
SBO 1.21 6.38 11.56
William Hill 1.20 6.00 13.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.21 ▼ -0.04
X 7.00 ▲ +1.45
2 15.00 ▲ +4.00

14 snapshots recorded, from .