RasenBallsport Leipzig
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Garuda Lions Prediction: RasenBallsport Leipzig
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven overview
Garuda Lions analysis: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
| Probability | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.2% | 19.6% | 41.2% |
| Market | 47.2% | 23.5% | 29.3% |
| Final | 45.2% | 22.5% | 32.3% |
| Edge | -8.1% | -3.9% | +11.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven match preview
RasenBallsport Leipzig faces PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League on October 13, 2026, with model probabilities indicating a 45% chance of a Leipzig victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 32% chance for PSV. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Leipzig, occurring at a 6% probability. Both teams show strong attacking potential, with over 2.5 goals predicted at 86% and both teams to score at 83%.
In terms of recent form, Leipzig has recorded two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while PSV has been more consistent with four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. The expected goals for Leipzig stand at 2.39, slightly lower than PSV's 2.44, indicating a closely contested match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.50
RasenBallsport Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven attack and defence ratings
RasenBallsport Leipzig
PSV Eindhoven
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 45.2% | 2.21 | -8.1% | 2.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 45.2% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| PSV Eindhoven | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 14.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 83.4% |
| No | 16.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.4% | |
| Loss | 65.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 6.8% |
| 1-2 | 5.7% | |
| 2-1 | 5.6% |
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven stats
RasenBallsport Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven recent form
| RasenBallsport Leipzig |
LWLLWW |
| PSV Eindhoven |
WLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.2%, draw 23.5%, away 29.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 4.16 | 3.38 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 4.05 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.06 | 4.10 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 4.05 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 4.22 | 3.20 |
| SBO | 2.00 | 3.42 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .