PSV Eindhoven
vs
Heerenveen
2 – 0 Full time
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
| Probability | PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.7% | 18.6% | 16.7% |
| Market | 70.5% | 15.5% | 14.0% |
| Final | 69.1% | 16.3% | 14.6% |
| Edge | -5.9% | +3.1% | +2.8% |
Why PSV Eindhoven
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.95
PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen attack and defence ratings
PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen: result vs prediction
PSV Eindhoven 2 – 0 Heerenveen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 69.1% | 1.45 | -5.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 69.1% |
| Draw | 16.3% | |
| Heerenveen | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win | 44.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 35.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 3-1 | 7.7% | |
| 1-1 | 7.4% |
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen stats
PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen recent form
| PSV Eindhoven |
LWDWWW |
| Heerenveen |
WDLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen going into this match
PSV Eindhoven record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Heerenveen record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-04 | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | KNVB Beker | 4-1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Heerenveen | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-08 | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-14 | Heerenveen | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-25 | Heerenveen | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | 0-8 |
| 2023-12-07 | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-21 | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 3-3 |
| 2022-10-09 | Heerenveen | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2022-02-20 | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.5%, draw 15.5%, away 14.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.35 | 6.73 | 6.63 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 5.75 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 6.00 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.39 | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.36 | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 6.15 | 6.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33 | 6.72 | 7.02 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 5.80 | 6.09 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 5.80 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .