Feyenoord
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Feyenoord
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
| Probability | Feyenoord | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.5% | 23.0% | 26.5% |
| Market | 52.1% | 23.6% | 24.3% |
| Final | 51.7% | 23.4% | 24.9% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -0.6% | +2.2% |
Why Feyenoord
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.47.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar match preview
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar are set to clash in the Eredivisie, with Feyenoord holding a 52% probability of winning compared to AZ Alkmaar's 25%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a 24% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Feyenoord, with an expected goals tally of 2.06 for Feyenoord and 1.47 for AZ Alkmaar.
Both teams show solid recent form, with Feyenoord recording three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while AZ Alkmaar has four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. Historical head-to-head results indicate that the last two encounters ended in draws, with neither team securing a victory. The probabilities suggest a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 68%.
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar team news
Feyenoord news
- B. Nieuwkoop — knee injury
- G. Borges — knock
- G. Smal — ankle injury
- J. Bos — knee injury
- J. Moder — knee injury
- T. Beelen — broken leg
- T. Watanabe — leg injury
AZ Alkmaar news
- S. Resink — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar attack and defence ratings
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feyenoord | 51.7% | 1.94 | -1.6% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.4% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feyenoord | 51.7% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| AZ Alkmaar | 24.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.1% |
| No | 31.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Feyenoord win | 30.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 49.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar stats
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar recent form
| Feyenoord |
WWLWDW |
| AZ Alkmaar |
WLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar season so far
Feyenoord record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.6 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 3.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
AZ Alkmaar record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-21 | AZ Alkmaar | Feyenoord | Eredivisie | 3-3 |
| 2025-04-05 | AZ Alkmaar | Feyenoord | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-02 | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 3-2 |
| 2024-02-07 | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | KNVB Beker | 2-0 |
| 2024-02-04 | AZ Alkmaar | Feyenoord | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-18 | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-16 | AZ Alkmaar | Feyenoord | Eredivisie | 1-3 |
| 2022-02-27 | AZ Alkmaar | Feyenoord | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.1%, draw 23.6%, away 24.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.87 | 4.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 4.20 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.95 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.73 | 4.12 |
| SBO | 1.79 | 3.57 | 3.24 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .