Utrecht
vs
Willem II
3 – 1 Full time
| 45′ | Yoann Cathline | ||
| 53′ | Yoann Cathline | ||
| 60′ | Jaden Slory | ||
| 68′ | Arthur ZagrePer Kloosterboer | ||
| 68′ | Niklas VesterlundÁngel Alarcón | ||
| 72′ | Jaden SloryEser Gürbüz | ||
| 72′ | Tonny VilhenaAnass Zarrouk | ||
| 75′ | Yoann Cathline | ||
| 80′ | Nikolas Panagiotou | ||
| 81′ | Vito van CrooyThomas Verheydt | ||
| 81′ | Nathan Tjoe-A-OnAlessandro Ciranni | ||
| 82′ | Marius BroholmAdrian Blake | ||
| 82′ | Oualid AgougilDavy Van Den Berg | ||
| 87′ | Uriël van AalstChido Obi | ||
| 90′ | Ángel Alarcón | ||
| 90′ | Yoann CathlineS. van Duijn |
Match stats
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 416 | Accurate passes | 278 |
Utrecht vs Willem II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Utrecht vs Willem II
| Probability | Utrecht | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.8% | 22.0% | 29.2% |
| Market | 62.7% | 20.4% | 16.9% |
| Final | 59.2% | 20.8% | 20.0% |
| Edge | -3.5% | +0.4% | +3.1% |
Why Utrecht
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Utrecht and Willem II expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.88
Utrecht and Willem II attack and defence ratings
Utrecht
Willem II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Utrecht vs Willem II: result vs prediction
Utrecht 3 – 1 Willem II
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Utrecht vs Willem II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 59.2% | 1.69 | -3.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 59.2% |
| Draw | 20.8% | |
| Willem II | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% |
| No | 26.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Utrecht win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 51.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Utrecht vs Willem II stats
Utrecht and Willem II recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Utrecht and Willem II going into this match
Utrecht record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Willem II record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
Utrecht vs Willem II head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-09 | Willem II | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
| 2024-09-21 | Utrecht | Willem II | Eredivisie | 3-2 |
| 2022-05-15 | Willem II | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2021-10-31 | Utrecht | Willem II | Eredivisie | 5-1 |
| 2021-05-01 | Utrecht | Willem II | Eredivisie | 3-2 |
| 2021-02-19 | Willem II | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 0-6 |
| 2020-02-16 | Willem II | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2019-09-29 | Utrecht | Willem II | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2019-01-27 | Utrecht | Willem II | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2018-10-28 | Willem II | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Utrecht vs Willem II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.7%, draw 20.4%, away 16.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 4.70 | 5.73 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.70 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 4.90 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 4.55 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.65 | 5.83 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 4.21 | 5.03 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
47 snapshots recorded, from .