Utrecht
vs
Willem II
Garuda Lions Prediction: Utrecht
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Utrecht vs Willem II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Utrecht vs Willem II
| Probability | Utrecht | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.6% | 22.0% | 29.4% |
| Market | 62.5% | 20.6% | 16.8% |
| Final | 59.1% | 21.0% | 20.0% |
| Edge | -14.0% | +1.4% | +12.6% |
Why Utrecht
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Utrecht vs Willem II match preview
Utrecht faces Willem II in the Eredivisie with a kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 60% probability of a Utrecht victory, while a draw stands at 21% and a Willem II win at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Utrecht, with an 8% chance of occurring. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals at a rate of 74%, and both teams are predicted to score, with a probability of 73%.
In terms of recent form, Utrecht has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Willem II has struggled with six matches yielding no wins, including four losses. Expected goals for Utrecht are 2.19, compared to 1.69 for Willem II, indicating a stronger offensive performance from the home side.
Utrecht and Willem II team news
Utrecht news
- A. Engwanda — hamstring injury
- A. Stepanov — ankle injury
- K. Paredes — knee injury
- M. Jonathans — knee injury
- N. Ohio — knee injury
- V. Jensen — knee injury
Willem II news
- A. Culum — foot injury
- A. Lachkar — groin injury
- J. Hoogma — knee injury
- K. Boogaard — knock
- T. Didillon Hodl — hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Utrecht and Willem II expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.88
Utrecht and Willem II attack and defence ratings
Utrecht
Willem II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Utrecht vs Willem II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 59.1% | 1.69 | -14.0% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 59.1% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| Willem II | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% |
| No | 26.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Utrecht win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 51.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Utrecht vs Willem II stats
Utrecht and Willem II recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Utrecht and Willem II season so far
Utrecht record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Willem II record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Utrecht vs Willem II head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Utrecht vs Willem II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.5%, draw 20.6%, away 16.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 4.70 | 5.73 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.55 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 4.90 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 4.55 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.72 | 5.89 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 4.11 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .