Fortuna Sittard
vs
Twente
Garuda Lions Prediction: Twente
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
| Probability | Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.2% | 21.4% | 56.4% |
| Market | 15.0% | 18.7% | 66.3% |
| Final | 16.8% | 19.4% | 63.8% |
| Edge | +7.2% | +2.6% | -9.9% |
Why Twente
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente match preview
In the upcoming Eredivisie match, Fortuna Sittard faces Twente, with model probabilities indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. Twente has a 64% chance of winning, while Fortuna Sittard's chances stand at 17%, and a draw is at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Both teams show a tendency for high-scoring matches, as indicated by a 71% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form reveals that Fortuna Sittard has alternated wins and losses, with a record of W-L-W-W-L-W, while Twente has been more consistent, winning five of their last six matches and drawing once. In their last two encounters, Twente has secured victories in both, further establishing their dominance in this matchup.
Fortuna Sittard and Twente team news
Fortuna Sittard news
- I. Marquez — injury
- R. Bayram — knee injury
- Y. Oukili — groin injury
Twente news
- S. Lemkin — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortuna Sittard and Twente expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.69
Fortuna Sittard and Twente attack and defence ratings
Fortuna Sittard
Twente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Twente | 63.8% | 1.57 | -9.9% | 1.46 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | 16.8% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| Twente | 63.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% |
| No | 31.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win | 35.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 43.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-3 | 7.0% |
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente stats
Fortuna Sittard and Twente recent form
| Fortuna Sittard |
WLWWLW |
| Twente |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortuna Sittard and Twente season so far
Fortuna Sittard record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Twente record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Fortuna Sittard | Twente | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Twente | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-05 | Twente | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Fortuna Sittard | Twente | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-06 | Twente | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-08 | Fortuna Sittard | Twente | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
| 2023-03-11 | Fortuna Sittard | Twente | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
| 2022-08-14 | Twente | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2022-05-07 | Twente | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2021-08-14 | Fortuna Sittard | Twente | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.0%, draw 18.7%, away 66.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.61 | 5.06 | 1.44 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.44 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 6.30 | 4.90 | 1.45 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 6.20 | 5.20 | 1.46 |
| Marathonbet | 6.40 | 4.90 | 1.40 |
| Pinnacle | 6.10 | 5.14 | 1.43 |
| SBO | 5.13 | 4.35 | 1.38 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .