Excelsior
vs
Groningen
1 – 5 Full time
| 7′ | Marco Rente | ||
| 20′ | David van der Werff | ||
| 36′ | Irakli Yegoian | ||
| 38′ | Stijn van Gassel | ||
| 64′ | Thom Van Bergen | ||
| 65′ | Simon JanssenKasey Bos | ||
| 65′ | David GardenMario Domínguez Franco | ||
| 65′ | Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonDaniel van Vianen | ||
| 65′ | Eric da Silva MoreiraValentin Sulzbacher | ||
| 66′ | Jacob OndrejkaTygo Land | ||
| 67′ | Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson | ||
| 72′ | Hans HateboerMark Csinger | ||
| 80′ | Tygo Land | ||
| 81′ | Aymen slitiAlireza Jahanbakhsh | ||
| 84′ | Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonNils Eggens | ||
| 85′ | Thom Van BergenRyan Metu | ||
| 85′ | David van der WerffOskar Zawada | ||
| 90′ | Marco Rente |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 5 | Saves | 1 |
| 343 | Accurate passes | 364 |
Excelsior vs Groningen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior vs Groningen
| Probability | Excelsior | Draw | Groningen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.7% | 22.4% | 25.8% |
| Market | 37.0% | 25.7% | 37.3% |
| Final | 40.7% | 24.9% | 34.5% |
| Edge | +3.7% | -0.8% | -2.9% |
Why Excelsior
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.49.
- The market prices Excelsior below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Excelsior and Groningen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.63
Excelsior and Groningen attack and defence ratings
Excelsior
Groningen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Excelsior vs Groningen: result vs prediction
Excelsior 1 – 5 Groningen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Excelsior vs Groningen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 40.7% | 2.46 | +3.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 40.7% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Groningen | 34.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Excelsior vs Groningen stats
Excelsior and Groningen recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Excelsior and Groningen going into this match
Excelsior record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Groningen record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
Excelsior vs Groningen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Groningen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
| 2025-12-05 | Excelsior | Groningen | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
| 2024-01-16 | Excelsior | Groningen | KNVB Beker | 0-2 |
| 2023-02-25 | Groningen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2023-01-08 | Excelsior | Groningen | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2021-12-15 | Excelsior | Groningen | KNVB Beker | 2-4 |
| 2019-04-06 | Groningen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2018-11-02 | Excelsior | Groningen | Eredivisie | 2-4 |
| 2018-04-29 | Groningen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 4-0 |
| 2017-12-17 | Excelsior | Groningen | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Excelsior vs Groningen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.0%, draw 25.7%, away 37.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.61 | 3.69 | 2.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.65 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.53 | 3.58 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.66 | 3.70 | 2.58 |
| SBO | 2.42 | 3.38 | 2.37 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
47 snapshots recorded, from .