Excelsior
vs
Groningen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Excelsior
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Excelsior vs Groningen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior vs Groningen
| Probability | Excelsior | Draw | Groningen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.6% | 22.5% | 25.9% |
| Market | 36.9% | 25.8% | 37.3% |
| Final | 40.6% | 24.9% | 34.5% |
| Edge | +14.6% | -3.3% | -11.4% |
Why Excelsior
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.49.
- The market prices Excelsior below the model: +14.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Excelsior vs Groningen match preview
Excelsior faces Groningen in an Eredivisie clash, with model probabilities indicating a 41% chance of an Excelsior victory, a 25% likelihood of a draw, and a 34% chance for Groningen to win. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Excelsior, with a 9% probability. Expectations for goals are high, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% probability that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Excelsior with mixed results, recording D-L-D-W-W-L, while Groningen has been more consistent with W-D-D-L-L-W. In their last two encounters, each team has secured one win against the other. The expected goals for Excelsior stand at 2.14, compared to 1.49 for Groningen, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
Excelsior and Groningen team news
Excelsior news
- N. Naujoks — injury
Groningen news
- E. van der Laan — injury
- M. Jeng — leg injury
- N. Brandis — injury
- R. Metu — injury
- T. Hernes — injury
- T. Mercera — injury
- W. Prins — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Excelsior and Groningen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.63
Excelsior and Groningen attack and defence ratings
Excelsior
Groningen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Excelsior vs Groningen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 40.6% | 2.46 | +14.6% | 2.61 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 40.6% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Groningen | 34.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 48.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Excelsior vs Groningen stats
Excelsior and Groningen recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Excelsior and Groningen season so far
Excelsior record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
Groningen record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Excelsior vs Groningen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Groningen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
| 2025-12-05 | Excelsior | Groningen | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Excelsior vs Groningen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.9%, draw 25.8%, away 37.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.61 | 3.69 | 2.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.70 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.53 | 3.58 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.62 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.36 | 3.25 | 2.39 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .