Ajax
vs
Excelsior
2 – 2 Full time
| 23′ | Caio HenriqueOwen Wijndal | ||
| 32′ | Julian Brandt | ||
| 35′ | Jan Plug | ||
| 45′ | Lennard Hartjes | ||
| 61′ | Viktor TsygankovOliver Valaker Edvardsen | ||
| 62′ | Kasper DolbergTolu Arokodare | ||
| 62′ | Aymen sliti | ||
| 64′ | Tolu Arokodare | ||
| 65′ | Eric da Silva MoreiraKasey Bos | ||
| 71′ | Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonIlano Silva Timas | ||
| 71′ | Aymen slitiAlireza Jahanbakhsh | ||
| 76′ | Jorthy MokioSofyan Amrabat | ||
| 77′ | Davy KlaassenAbdellah Ouazane | ||
| 85′ | Oscar Gloukh | ||
| 85′ | Irakli Yegoian | ||
| 85′ | David GardenMario Domínguez Franco |
Match stats
| 33 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 81 | Possession % | 19 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 0 | Saves | 6 |
| 755 | Accurate passes | 132 |
Ajax vs Excelsior overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ajax vs Excelsior
| Probability | Ajax | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.1% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
| Market | 77.7% | 13.5% | 8.7% |
| Final | 73.8% | 14.7% | 11.4% |
| Edge | -15.7% | +4.8% | +10.9% |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.57.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ajax and Excelsior expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.31
Ajax and Excelsior attack and defence ratings
Ajax
Excelsior
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ajax vs Excelsior: result vs prediction
Ajax 2 – 2 Excelsior
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ajax vs Excelsior markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 73.8% | 1.35 | -15.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.6% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 73.8% |
| Draw | 14.7% | |
| Excelsior | 11.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% |
| No | 25.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 42.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 38.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.9% |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | |
| 1-1 | 6.3% |
Ajax vs Excelsior stats
Ajax and Excelsior recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ajax and Excelsior going into this match
Ajax record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Excelsior record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
Ajax vs Excelsior head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Excelsior | Ajax | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Ajax | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-24 | Ajax | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-19 | Excelsior | Ajax | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2023-01-29 | Excelsior | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-4 |
| 2022-10-16 | Ajax | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 7-1 |
| 2019-04-13 | Ajax | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 6-2 |
| 2018-11-11 | Excelsior | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-7 |
| 2018-05-06 | Excelsior | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2017-12-14 | Ajax | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ajax vs Excelsior odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 77.2%, draw 13.8%, away 9.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.34 | 5.30 | 7.30 |
| 1xBet | 1.23 | 7.19 | 11.00 |
| 888Sport | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.20 | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| Betano | 1.25 | 7.40 | 11.25 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.21 | 6.65 | 10.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.23 | 7.32 | 10.77 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .