Ajax
vs
Willem II
5 – 1 Full time
| 41′ | Davy Klaassen | ||
| 45′ | Julian Brandt | ||
| 45′ | Per van LoonAlessandro Ciranni | ||
| 45′ | Tonny VilhenaMats Lemmens | ||
| 57′ | Steven BerghuisViktor Tsygankov | ||
| 57′ | Davy KlaassenSofyan Amrabat | ||
| 61′ | Hidde ter AvestA. Et-Taibi | ||
| 67′ | Owen WijndalCaio Henrique | ||
| 67′ | Julian BrandtAbdellah Ouazane | ||
| 69′ | Viktor Tsygankov | ||
| 70′ | Jaden SloryChido Obi | ||
| 74′ | Oscar Gloukh | ||
| 76′ | Alessandro Ciranni | ||
| 77′ | Thilo KehrerDies Janse | ||
| 84′ | Maxim DekkerEser Gürbüz | ||
| 87′ | Kasper Dolberg |
Match stats
| 33 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 70 | Possession % | 30 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 3 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 3 | Saves | 7 |
| 691 | Accurate passes | 266 |
Ajax vs Willem II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ajax vs Willem II
| Probability | Ajax | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.1% | 15.1% | 10.8% |
| Market | 85.9% | 9.2% | 4.8% |
| Final | 83.0% | 10.7% | 6.3% |
| Edge | -11.8% | +5.9% | +5.9% |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ajax and Willem II expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.10
Ajax and Willem II attack and defence ratings
Ajax
Willem II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ajax vs Willem II: result vs prediction
Ajax 5 – 1 Willem II
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ajax vs Willem II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 83.0% | 1.21 | -11.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.7% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 83.0% |
| Draw | 10.7% | |
| Willem II | 6.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.7% |
| No | 35.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 89.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 17.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 55.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 25.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.3% |
| 3-1 | 8.2% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
Ajax vs Willem II stats
Ajax and Willem II recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ajax and Willem II going into this match
Ajax record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Willem II record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Ajax vs Willem II head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-13 | Willem II | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-27 | Ajax | Willem II | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2022-02-19 | Willem II | Ajax | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2021-12-02 | Ajax | Willem II | Eredivisie | 5-0 |
| 2021-01-28 | Ajax | Willem II | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
| 2020-12-23 | Willem II | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2019-12-06 | Ajax | Willem II | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
| 2019-05-05 | Willem II | Ajax | KNVB Beker | 0-4 |
| 2019-04-06 | Willem II | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ajax vs Willem II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 85.2%, draw 9.4%, away 5.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.14 | 7.50 | 16.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.09 | 12.30 | 23.00 |
| 888Sport | 1.18 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.10 | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.08 | 10.50 | 20.00 |
| Betano | 1.14 | 10.25 | 20.00 |
| Betfair | 1.10 | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.08 | 10.25 | 19.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.12 | 11.35 | 18.09 |
| SBO | 1.10 | 8.49 | 13.48 |
| Unibet | 1.16 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
| William Hill | 1.11 | 10.00 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
20 snapshots recorded, from .