AZ Alkmaar
vs
Willem II
1 – 1 Full time
| 29′ | Tonny Vilhena | ||
| 32′ | Jordy Clasie | ||
| 64′ | Calvin StengsWeslley Pinto Batista | ||
| 64′ | Jordy ClasieValdemar Byskov Andreasen | ||
| 70′ | Tonny Vilhenakasper boogaard | ||
| 70′ | Per van LoonAlessandro Ciranni | ||
| 78′ | Mexx MeerdinkJizz Hornkamp | ||
| 81′ | Devin Haen | ||
| 87′ | Dave KwakmanBendegúz Kovács | ||
| 87′ | Ro Zangelo DaalAyoub Oufkir | ||
| 88′ | Jaden SloryThomas Verheydt | ||
| 90′ | Maxim DekkerMats Lemmens |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 67 | Possession % | 33 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 608 | Accurate passes | 259 |
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II
| Probability | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.2% | 17.0% | 11.9% |
| Market | 83.6% | 10.6% | 5.7% |
| Final | 80.5% | 12.2% | 7.3% |
| Edge | -12.5% | +6.3% | +6.2% |
Why AZ Alkmaar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.77
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II attack and defence ratings
AZ Alkmaar
Willem II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II: result vs prediction
AZ Alkmaar 1 – 1 Willem II
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 80.5% | 1.24 | -12.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 80.5% |
| Draw | 12.2% | |
| Willem II | 7.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% |
| No | 38.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 19.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win | 51.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 28.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | |
| 3-1 | 8.1% |
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II stats
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II recent form
| AZ Alkmaar |
WWWWWD |
| Willem II |
LDLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II going into this match
AZ Alkmaar record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-02 | Willem II | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
| 2024-11-10 | AZ Alkmaar | Willem II | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2022-03-20 | Willem II | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2021-12-18 | AZ Alkmaar | Willem II | Eredivisie | 4-1 |
| 2021-04-03 | Willem II | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2020-12-20 | AZ Alkmaar | Willem II | Eredivisie | 5-3 |
| 2020-01-18 | AZ Alkmaar | Willem II | Eredivisie | 1-3 |
| 2019-10-06 | Willem II | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2019-02-28 | Willem II | AZ Alkmaar | KNVB Beker | 2-2 |
| 2019-02-24 | Willem II | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 82.8%, draw 11.1%, away 6.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.16 | 7.30 | 14.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.12 | 10.40 | 18.00 |
| 888Sport | 1.14 | 8.50 | 13.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 8.50 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.12 | 8.50 | 17.00 |
| Betano | 1.15 | 7.60 | 19.00 |
| Betfair | 1.11 | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.15 | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.11 | 9.10 | 15.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.14 | 9.77 | 17.76 |
| SBO | 1.13 | 7.05 | 10.60 |
| Superbet | 1.15 | 8.60 | 14.00 |
| Unibet | 1.14 | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| William Hill | 1.12 | 8.50 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .