Fortuna Sittard
vs
Ajax
1 – 5 Full time
| 6′ | Jorthy Mokio | ||
| 23′ | Youri Baas | ||
| 35′ | Julian Brandt | ||
| 44′ | Lequincio Zeefuik | ||
| 45′ | Lequincio ZeefuikAnthony Descotte | ||
| 52′ | Anthony Descotte | ||
| 57′ | Oliver Valaker EdvardsenAbdellah Ouazane | ||
| 58′ | Jorthy MokioDavy Klaassen | ||
| 62′ | Thilo Kehrer | ||
| 64′ | Steven Berghuis | ||
| 68′ | Steven BerghuisViktor Tsygankov | ||
| 71′ | Caio Henrique | ||
| 73′ | Davy Klaassen | ||
| 74′ | Tolu ArokodareKasper Dolberg | ||
| 74′ | Julian BrandtOscar Gloukh | ||
| 76′ | Jasper DahlhausNick de Groot | ||
| 76′ | Mohammed IhattarenSyb Van Ottele | ||
| 79′ | Kasper Dolberg | ||
| 81′ | Abdellah Ouazane | ||
| 86′ | Edouard MichutMoussa Gbemou | ||
| 89′ | Ole RomenyKevin Van Burgsteden | ||
| 90′ | Youri Baas |
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 27 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 11 |
| 34 | Possession % | 66 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 6 | Saves | 3 |
| 270 | Accurate passes | 563 |
Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
| Probability | Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.8% | 20.3% | 53.0% |
| Market | 13.8% | 17.8% | 68.4% |
| Final | 17.0% | 18.5% | 64.5% |
| Edge | +13.0% | +2.4% | -15.4% |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 1.77.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortuna Sittard and Ajax expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.25
Fortuna Sittard and Ajax attack and defence ratings
Fortuna Sittard
Ajax
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax: result vs prediction
Fortuna Sittard 1 – 5 Ajax
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 64.5% | 1.55 | -15.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.0% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | 17.0% |
| Draw | 18.5% | |
| Ajax | 64.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.6% |
| No | 23.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 35.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.8% |
| 1-1 | 6.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax stats
Fortuna Sittard and Ajax recent form
| Fortuna Sittard |
WWLWDL |
| Ajax |
LWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortuna Sittard and Ajax going into this match
Fortuna Sittard record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Ajax | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 4-1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-3 |
| 2025-02-09 | Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-18 | Ajax | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 5-0 |
| 2024-03-10 | Ajax | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-03 | Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | Eredivisie | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-09 | Ajax | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 4-0 |
| 2022-08-06 | Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
| 2021-12-22 | Ajax | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 5-0 |
| 2021-09-21 | Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | Eredivisie | 0-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.3%, draw 18.5%, away 67.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 6.60 | 4.85 | 1.40 |
| 1xBet | 7.05 | 5.25 | 1.41 |
| 888Sport | 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 5.50 | 1.38 |
| BetVictor | 7.00 | 5.25 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 6.80 | 5.50 | 1.44 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 6.80 | 5.20 | 1.42 |
| Marathonbet | 6.85 | 5.10 | 1.37 |
| Pinnacle | 6.80 | 5.39 | 1.42 |
| SBO | 6.09 | 4.84 | 1.36 |
| Unibet | 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .