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Eredivisie · Full time ·Matchday 5

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven

1 – 3 Full time

-5′Davy Klaassen
-5′Lutsharel Geertruida
-5′Ivan Perišić
5′R. Pepi
16′Kodai Sano
23′T. Arokodare
37′Noah Fernandez
45′L. Geertruida
46′N. FernandezP. Wanner
54′O. GloukhS. Amrabat
54′D. KlaassenMarcos Leonardo
61′T. ArokodareK. Dolberg
61′S. BerghuisV. Tsygankov
63′R. PepiS. Mijnans
63′I. PerisicE. Bajraktarevic
73′J. MokioA. Ouazane
73′L. GeertruidaR. Flamingo
73′Mauro JuniorF. Kostic
74′Filip Kostić
81′Youri Baas
81′Ruben van Bommel
84′A. BouwmanT. Kehrer
88′A. ObispoY. Gasiorowski
90′Anton Gaaei
90′E. Bajraktarevic

Johan Cruijff Arena, AmsterdamReferee: Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands

Ajax 39%
Draw 23%
PSV Eindhoven 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 13
6 Shots on target 5
53 Possession % 47
1 Corners 1
6 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1
2 Saves 5
427 Accurate passes 384

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAjaxDrawPSV Eindhoven
Model45.7%19.3%35.0%
Market36.3%24.3%39.4%
Final38.7%23.1%38.3%
Edge+9.4%-5.0%-4.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Ajax

  • The market prices Ajax below the model: +9.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ajax ↓ / PSV Eindhoven → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 5% 4% 4% 2 6% 7% 5% 5% 3 5% 6% 4% 4% 4+ 6% 7% 5% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 96%
3+ goals 87%
No goals 1%

Ajax and PSV Eindhoven expected goals

Ajax 2.60
PSV Eindhoven 2.30

Total expected goals: 4.90

Ajax and PSV Eindhoven attack and defence ratings

Ajax

Attack 1.60 +60%
Defence 0.83 -17%

PSV Eindhoven

Attack 1.89 +89%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven: result vs prediction

Ajax 1 – 3 PSV Eindhoven

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Eredivisie

Before and after this match

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ajax 38.7% 2.59 +9.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 86.7% 1.15 — —
Both teams to score Yes 83.7% 1.19 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.9% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.5% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ajax38.7%
Draw23.1%
PSV Eindhoven38.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.586.7%
Under 2.513.3%
Both teams to scoreYes83.7%
No16.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.7%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)61.3%
Handicap -1Ajax win28.6%
Push (exactly one goal)17.0%
Loss54.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-26.7%
2-15.8%
3-25.8%

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven stats

Ajax and PSV Eindhoven recent form

newest first
Ajax WWWDDW
PSV Eindhoven WWWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Ajax wins 4Draws 4PSV Eindhoven wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02AjaxPSV EindhovenEredivisie2-2
2025-09-21PSV EindhovenAjaxEredivisie2-2
2025-03-30PSV EindhovenAjaxEredivisie0-2
2024-11-02AjaxPSV EindhovenEredivisie3-2
2024-02-03AjaxPSV EindhovenEredivisie1-1
2023-10-29PSV EindhovenAjaxEredivisie5-2
2023-04-30AjaxPSV EindhovenKNVB Beker1-1
2023-04-23PSV EindhovenAjaxEredivisie3-0
2022-11-06AjaxPSV EindhovenEredivisie1-2
2022-07-30AjaxPSV EindhovenSuper Cup3-5

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 24.1%, away 39.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.54 3.95 2.38
1xBet 2.65 3.95 2.43
Bet365 2.70 3.75 2.45
BetVictor 2.50 4.00 2.38
Betano 2.65 3.95 2.40
Betfair 2.55 4.00 2.38
Dafabet 2.70 3.95 2.38
Marathonbet 2.58 3.84 2.36
Pinnacle 2.64 4.09 2.44
SBO 2.42 3.56 2.19
Superbet 2.70 3.85 2.37
Unibet 2.65 3.75 2.32
William Hill 2.50 3.80 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.61 ▲ +0.11
X 3.90 ▲ +0.01
2 2.41 —

13 snapshots recorded, from .