Telstar vs Ajax overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Telstar vs Ajax
| Probability | Telstar | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.5% | 23.8% | 44.7% |
| Market | 20.2% | 20.8% | 59.0% |
| Final | 23.0% | 21.6% | 55.4% |
| Edge | +11.3% | +3.0% | -14.3% |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.76.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Telstar and Ajax expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.91
Telstar and Ajax attack and defence ratings
Telstar
Ajax
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Telstar vs Ajax: result vs prediction
Telstar 0 – 4 Ajax
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Telstar vs Ajax markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 55.4% | 1.80 | -14.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Telstar | 23.0% |
| Draw | 21.6% | |
| Ajax | 55.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% |
| No | 31.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
Telstar vs Ajax stats
Telstar vs Ajax head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Telstar | Ajax | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Ajax | Telstar | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Telstar vs Ajax odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.2%, draw 20.8%, away 59.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.60 | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| 1xBet | 4.88 | 4.68 | 1.60 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 4.75 | 4.50 | 1.57 |
| Betano | 4.45 | 4.35 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 4.50 | 1.57 |
| Dafabet | 4.70 | 4.50 | 1.66 |
| Marathonbet | 4.75 | 4.55 | 1.56 |
| Pinnacle | 4.82 | 4.62 | 1.58 |
| SBO | 4.03 | 3.89 | 1.56 |
| Unibet | 4.50 | 4.25 | 1.63 |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .