PEC Zwolle
vs
NEC Nijmegen
1 – 3 Full time
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen
| Probability | PEC Zwolle | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.1% | 26.7% | 39.2% |
| Market | 21.7% | 21.9% | 56.4% |
| Final | 24.8% | 23.1% | 52.1% |
| Edge | +12.3% | +4.8% | -17.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen attack and defence ratings
PEC Zwolle
NEC Nijmegen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen: result vs prediction
PEC Zwolle 1 – 3 NEC Nijmegen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 52.1% | 1.92 | -17.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PEC Zwolle | 24.8% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| NEC Nijmegen | 52.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% |
| No | 39.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC Nijmegen win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 60.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen stats
PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen recent form
| PEC Zwolle |
WLLLLW |
| NEC Nijmegen |
LLWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | NEC Nijmegen | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | PEC Zwolle | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.7%, draw 21.9%, away 56.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.40 | 4.30 | 1.64 |
| 1xBet | 4.46 | 4.46 | 1.69 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 4.33 | 4.20 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 4.40 | 4.25 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.40 | 4.40 | 1.71 |
| Marathonbet | 4.33 | 4.33 | 1.64 |
| Pinnacle | 4.26 | 4.46 | 1.68 |
| SBO | 3.72 | 3.77 | 1.62 |
| Superbet | 4.25 | 4.35 | 1.70 |
| Unibet | 4.20 | 4.30 | 1.66 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .