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Eredivisie · Full time ·Matchday 4

Cambuur vs Twente

1 – 4 Full time

22′R. Nijstad
26′W. Weghorst
39′Nicky Souren
40′Sondre Ørjasæter
46′M. CostarelliF. Kvam
46′S. BouhoudaneN. Binder
47′M. Pjaca
60′D. WeidmannT. van den Belt
60′S. OrjasaeterF. Thorvaldsen
65′J. AmofaD. Bouah
77′J. BerkhoutS. Vink
77′M. PjacaK. Kurowski
82′Y. Taha
85′I. HenstraI. Hamache
85′A. AdelgaardG. Peixoto
85′B. van RooijM. Bruns
88′I. Hamache

Kooi Stadion, LeeuwardenReferee: Erwin Blank, Netherlands

Cambuur 15%
Draw 19%
Twente 66%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 23
3 Shots on target 10
36 Possession % 64
2 Corners 9
6 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 2
6 Saves 2
274 Accurate passes 533

Cambuur vs Twente overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cambuur vs Twente

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCambuurDrawTwente
Model24.4%21.0%54.6%
Market12.4%17.8%69.9%
Final15.4%18.6%66.1%
Edge+12.1%+3.2%-15.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Twente

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.48.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cambuur ↓ / Twente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 5% 6% 1 7% 8% 7% 9% 2 5% 6% 5% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 2%

Cambuur and Twente expected goals

Cambuur 1.48
Twente 2.65

Total expected goals: 4.14

Cambuur and Twente attack and defence ratings

Cambuur

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.39 +39%

Twente

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cambuur vs Twente: result vs prediction

Cambuur 1 – 4 Twente

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Eredivisie

Before and after this match

Cambuur vs Twente markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Twente 66.1% 1.51 -15.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.0% 1.33 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.3% 1.38 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 84.6% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 Twente win 42.3% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cambuur15.4%
Draw18.6%
Twente66.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.0%
Under 2.525.0%
Both teams to scoreYes72.3%
No27.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)33.9%
12 (either side)81.4%
X2 (draw or away)84.6%
Handicap -1Twente win42.3%
Push (exactly one goal)19.6%
Loss38.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.6%
1-18.0%
1-36.8%

Cambuur vs Twente stats

Cambuur and Twente recent form

newest first
Cambuur LLLWLD
Twente WLWDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cambuur vs Twente head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Cambuur vs Twente odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 12.4%, draw 17.8%, away 69.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 7.90 5.25 1.33
1xBet 7.90 5.51 1.36
Bet365 6.50 5.25 1.33
BetVictor 7.50 5.25 1.33
Betano 7.90 5.40 1.36
Betfair 8.50 5.00 1.30
Dafabet 7.40 5.60 1.38
Marathonbet 7.60 5.30 1.33
Pinnacle 7.66 5.30 1.35
SBO 5.70 4.63 1.33
Unibet 7.50 5.10 1.34
William Hill 7.00 5.00 1.35

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 7.55 ▲ +1.29
X 5.25 ▲ +0.80
2 1.33 ▼ -0.16

13 snapshots recorded, from .