Qarabag
vs
Twente
1 – 4 Full time
Qarabag vs Twente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Qarabag vs Twente
| Probability | Qarabag | Draw | Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.0% | 22.1% | 13.9% |
| Market | 30.7% | 25.5% | 43.8% |
| Final | 39.0% | 24.7% | 36.3% |
| Edge | +33.3% | -3.4% | -29.9% |
Why Qarabag
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Qarabag below the model: +33.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Qarabag and Twente expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Qarabag and Twente attack and defence ratings
Qarabag
Twente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Qarabag vs Twente: result vs prediction
Qarabag 1 – 4 Twente
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Playoff round fixtures
Before and after this match
Qarabag vs Twente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 39.0% | 2.57 | +33.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 39.0% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Twente | 36.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.4% |
| No | 48.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 40.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 36.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 1-1 | 10.6% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Qarabag vs Twente stats
Qarabag vs Twente head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Twente | Qarabag | UEFA Europa Conference League | 0-1 |
| 2014-08-28 | Twente | Qarabag | UEFA Europa League | 1-1 |
| 2014-08-21 | Qarabag | Twente | UEFA Europa League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Qarabag vs Twente odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.7%, draw 25.5%, away 43.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.18 |
| 1xBet | 3.08 | 3.86 | 2.19 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.65 | 2.22 |
| Marathonbet | 2.98 | 3.74 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.96 | 3.82 | 2.09 |
| SBO | 2.82 | 3.20 | 2.06 |
| Superbet | 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.20 |
| Unibet | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .